Broncos' Nickel Package Could Be the NFL's Best, PFF Claims

The 2025 season is still months away, but the NFL media is already buzzing about the potential of the Denver Broncos defense. After finishing as one of the most shocking defenses in football last season, ranking fourth in FTN Fantasy's (formerly Football Outsiders) defensive DVOA as well as fourth in defensive EPA/Play when excluding garbage time (win probability 10-90%), the Broncos did not rest on their laurels, doubling down this offseason.

What could make the Broncos defense so special this season? According to Pro Football Focus, Denver could feature one of the best nickel defenses in the entire NFL this season.

With depth across the defensive line, the reigning defensive player of the year in Patrick Surtain II, and the additions of safety Talanoa Hufanga, linebacker Dre Greenlaw, and first-round cornerback Jahdae Barron to the back seven, Denver should expect to find itself as a top-five defense in the league once again this season.

"Denver boasted an excellent defense last season that included NFL Defensive Player of the Year Patrick Surtain II and major improvements across the board. Despite expectations this offseason that the Broncos would surround Bo Nix with a litany of offensive weapons, the team chose to dig its heels in and remedy its remaining flaws on defense," Dalton Wasserman wrote. "Denver’s first-round pick, Jahdae Barron, should have a massive impact on the team’s cornerback unit. He led the FBS in zone PFF coverage grade last season, which bodes well for a defense that plays a heavy amount of Cover 3. Barron also offers versatility to play outside and in the slot... When the Broncos are in nickel and Barron can operate as something of a Swiss Army knife, the team's coverage unit should be substantially better in 2025."

While the Broncos defense was one of the best in the NFL last season, they were a unit that was rather erratic on a week-to-week basis. According to FTN Fantasy’s defensive variance metric, which measures how stable a defense is any given week from their baseline, Denver’s defense ranked as the singularly most volatile defense in the entire NFL.

Denver had some outstanding defensive performances and destroyed some rather inept offenses, but against the likes of the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and more, they struggled. The Broncos gave up 30-plus points in four of the team’s final six games (and that’s including the rather pathetic showing from Kansas City’s backups in Week 18). Hopefully, the additions in the back seven can help Denver avoid the bad games as much as they can increase the dominating performances.

Speaking of volatility, defenses themselves tend to fluctuate year-to-year in comparison to good offenses (mainly because there is more stability attached to a quarterback and offensive line over multiple seasons as compared to the defensive side of the ball). One area to probably expect regression from the Denver defense this season is its sack output.

While the Broncos will likely wind up as one of the better pressure defenses in football next season given the depth up front and a unit that revolves around Surtain's presence, allowing Vance Joseph to allocate more bodies up front, it’s just not reasonable to expect Denver to break its all-time franchise record 63 sacks (and nine more last year than the second place Ravens at 54).

That's especially true when statistics such as hurry rate (8.5%, ranking t-12) and quarterback hit rate (11.9%, ranking fourth) point toward Denver turning an exorbitant number of pressures and contact with the quarterback into sacks, compared to its league counterparts.

Will the Broncos feature the best defense in the NFL this season? Without a bonafide future first-ballot Hall-of-Fame pass rusher up front, it’s hard to say with certainty that the Broncos will undoubtedly have the best defense in the NFL in 2025.

The likes of Nik Bonitto and Zach Allen are exceedingly good players, but this isn’t the 2015 defense led by Von Miller up front. Still, what makes the moves from the Broncos this offseason on defense so valuable is that they should, in theory, help relieve a good portion of the year-to-year instability associated with the defensive side of the ball.

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Adding so many versatile and talented playmakers to the back seven to complement the straw that stirs the drink (Surtain) with the depth of talent up front should drastically raise the floor of the 2025 Denver defense, and that in conjunction with a second-year Nix, a young ascending offensive core, and the stability and cohesion of the offensive line, make the Broncos one of the most interesting offseason darlings as eyes look forward to fall.