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Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) takes the snap during the first quarter of the game against the Kansas City Chiefs at Empower Field at Mile High. Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

Broncos Skyrocket in AFC Playoff Race After Upsetting Chiefs

Originally posted on Denver Broncos on SI
By Erick Trickel | Last updated Nov 18, 2025 6:04 PM ET

The Denver Broncos not only have the best record in the AFC West, but also the best record in the NFL as they enter their Week 12 bye. The Broncos took the top spot in the AFC over the New England Patriots, while the NFC is led by the Philadelphia Eagles, whom Denver beat in Week 5.

Let's take a look at the AFC playoff picture entering Week 12.

Denver Broncos (9-2)
New England Patriots (9-2)
Indianapolis Colts (9-2)
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Buffalo Bills (7-3)
Los Angeles Chargers (6-4)
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)

What matters most is the commanding lead the Broncos have in the AFC West. The Broncos sit two games ahead of the Chargers, with one game left against them. The Broncos' loss to the Chargers in Week 3 means they lose the head-to-head tiebreaker, so if they end up with the same record in the final week, that season finale could be huge.

Beating the Chiefs gives the Broncos a 4.5-game lead over the reigning ‘kings’ of the AFC West, because of the head-to-head tiebreaker, with one game left against them. That second game comes on Christmas Day and will be in Kansas City, which could also be a massive game for the season, as the Chiefs are currently out of the playoff picture (No. 9 seed) and will be fighting to get back in.

With six games left, the Broncos hold a 95% chance of making the playoffs, the second-highest in the AFC and the fourth-highest in the NFL. The fact that there are six games left means Denver's path to the playoffs could vary. There is still a chance the Broncos lose the division to the Chargers if they don't take care of business.

Denver still has a lot of challenging games left, including three divisional games. Thankfully, the Broncos are on their bye and can hopefully get some healthy reinforcements back, including cornerback Patrick Surtain II, tight end Nate Adkins, linebacker Alex Singleton, and potentially others.

Week 13: at Washington Commanders

First up out of the bye week is a trip to take on the Commanders, who are most likely going to be without quarterback Jayden Daniels. The Commanders can still be a formidable foe, especially on the road, and Denver has to take them seriously. A win would mean the Broncos swept the NFC East this season.

Week 14: at Las Vegas Raiders

After that, the Broncos' second divisional game against the Raiders will be in Las Vegas. Divisional games are always challenging and should never be overlooked (as Week 10 proved), but the Raiders' season is all but over with a 2-9 record. A team with nothing to lose always makes for a dangerous foe.

Two-Game Homestand vs. Playoff Contenders

The Green Bay Packers and Jaguars in Denver follow the Raiders game in back-to-back weeks. With both teams pushing for the playoffs and their respective divisions, there could be a lot on the line in these two games, and while a Broncos loss to the Packers would hurt, falling to the Jaguars would have a significant impact on playoff seeding.

Closing the Season In the Division

That gets Denver to the Christmas Day game against the Chiefs, then to the season finale against the Chargers at home. These two games could be deciding factors in who wins the division, depending on what the Broncos, Chargers, and Chiefs do over the next five weeks leading up to them.

Right now, Denver has a commanding hold on the division with two games up on the Chargers, but that lead doesn't guarantee the division. All the Broncos need to do is lose two games while the Chargers win two for L.A. to take the division lead.

The Takeaway

You never want to rely on other teams when it comes to getting into the playoffs, even though the Broncos ended up doing that last year and barely made it in. Ideally, the Broncos enter the final two weeks with the division clinched and the only thing left to figure out is whether they will be the first, second, or third seed in the AFC.

Thankfully for Broncos Country, throughout this eight-game winning streak, the team has proven it can find ways to win against all kinds of opponents. The Broncos' grit is unquestionable, and fans should have the utmost faith in them to get it done, especially when it matters most, as evidenced by their four fourth-quarter comeback wins and their statement victory over the Chiefs.