With the Falcons owning the tiebreaker in the NFC South race, it feels like the Bucs are playing a playoff game week in and week out these days. Because at this point, any Tampa Bay loss could mean Atlanta evening things up in the standings with a win, which would mean re-taking the lead from the three-time defending division champions because of that tiebreaker. So, how would things unfold in Week 16?
There’s no doubt that the Falcons came in with the more favorable matchup this weekend, as they hosted the 2-12 Giants while the Bucs hit the road for a Sunday Night Football contest against an improving 6-8 Cowboys team that had won three of their last four games. If Todd Bowles and his team could get through Sunday with their NFC South lead intact, they would be able to set up a clinching scenario in Week 17, as a win over the Panthers and a Falcons loss to the 10-5 Commanders would wrap up a fourth straight division title.
The Falcons made a big change this week in benching veteran quarterback Kirk Cousins for No. 8 overall pick Michael Penix Jr. ahead of their Week 16 home game against the 2-12 Giants. Atlanta easily took care of business against New York, winning 34-7.
The rookie quarterback finished 18-of-27 for 202 yards and an interception, leaving Bijan Robinson and the Falcons defense to do the work. Robinson ran for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 22 carries while the defense chipped in with two pick-sixes in addition to holding the Giants scoreless for the final 44:53 of the game.
The Atlanta win during Sunday’s 1:00 window put some pressure back on Tampa Bay, which knew going into its Sunday Night Football matchup against Dallas knowing it needed a win to stay on top of the NFC South heading into Christmas. But instead of keeping their win streak alive, the Bucs kept their primetime losing streak alive instead, playing an all-around sloppy game before a late comeback attempt fell short in a 26-24 loss.
Tampa Bay’s defense gave up too many explosive plays and the offense was too careless with the football in what turned into another disappointing showing under the bright lights of primetime.
So now, the Falcons are back atop the NFC South and control their own playoff destiny with two weeks to play in the regular season.
— Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@Buccaneers) December 23, 2024
Here’s an updated look at the NFC South standings through Week 16:
Atlanta Falcons 8-7 (4-1 in the NFC South)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-7 (2-2 in the NFC South)
New Orleans Saints 5-9 (2-3 in the NFC South)*
Carolina Panthers 4-11 (1-3 in the NFC South)
*Saints still to play at Packers on Monday Night Football
The Falcons can clinch the division next Sunday if the Bucs lose to the Panthers and they go on to beat the Commanders on Sunday Night Football. But if Tampa Bay can get back on track and beat Carolina early on Sunday, it’ll put similar pressure on Atlanta heading into its own primetime matchup – essentially serving as a reverse of what happened this week.
The simple fact is that the Bucs will now need some help in the next two weeks to win a fourth straight division title. First off, they need to take care of themselves and beat the last-place and third-pace teams in the division at home. If they can do that, they need the Falcons to lose one of their remaining two games in order to win the South and host a playoff game.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for the top two contenders in the NFC South:
Week 17: Bucs – vs. Panthers (4-11); Falcons – at Commanders (10-5)
Week 18: Bucs – vs. Saints (5-9); Falcons – vs. Panthers (4-11)
Tampa Bay’s best hope may be next week, assuming it can put together a better showing than it did last time it saw Carolina and win that game to get to 9-7. Washington is riding high after beating the Eagles on Sunday, with Jayden Daniels throwing a late touchdown pass to keep the Birds from clinching the NFC East. Plus, the Commanders have their own playoff aspirations to play for, as they can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons next Sunday.
A Commanders win following a Bucs win would have Todd Bowles’ team right back in first place with a win-and-in scenario ahead of it in Week 18.
Tampa Bay’s best path to the playoffs is still through the NFC South, but there’s a narrow path in the NFC Wild Card race as well. Next week’s game between the Commanders and Falcons is doubly important in that way really, but more on that in a minute.
First, let’s look at the rest of the NFC playoff picture.
Just one week after the race for the NFC’s No. 1 seed opened back up with the Lions’ loss to the Bills, it reversed course. The Lions handled the Bears with ease, winning 34-17 to get back on track and hold on to the top spot. Elsewhere in the 1:00 window, the Eagles were outscored 22-6 in the fourth quarter on their way to a 36-33 loss to the Commanders.
Not only did that cost Philadelphia a chance to clinch the NFC East, but Nick Sirianni’s team also fell back to a game behind Detroit for the No. 1 seed.
Also in the 1:00 window, the Rams maintained their spot atop the NFC West with a 19-9 win over the Jets. They also got help elsewhere, both in the 1:00 and 4:00 windows. First, it was the Cardinals losing 36-30 to the Panthers in overtime, then it was the the Seahawks losing 27-24 to the Vikings and the 49ers falling to the Dolphins by a score of 29-17. Los Angeles now has a full game on Seattle, and both Arizona and San Francisco are eliminated from contention.
With that win over the Seahawks, the Vikings kept pace with the Lions in the race for the NFC North crown, as well as the No. 1 seed in the NFC. They technically control their own destiny the rest of the way, as they do meet the Lions in Week 18.
For now, Minnesota remains the No. 5 seed, and with the way the picture currently looks, Sam Darnold and Co. would be headed to Atlanta to face Michael Penix Jr. and the Falcons on Super Wild Card Weekend.
The Packers are still in possession of the No. 6 seed, though they don’t play their Week 16 game until Monday night when they host the Saints. A win will keep them in that second Wild Card spot, while a loss would allow the Commanders back into the picture for that spot. With the way everything currently stands, that No. 6 seed would be headed west to face Matthew Stafford and the Rams on Super Wild Card Weekend.
So, back to the Commanders. They got a five-touchdown day from Jayden Daniels to come back and beat the Eagles late, getting them their 10th win of the season and preventing Philly from clinching the NFC East for now. Washington now has a two-game lead on the potential Wild Card teams behind them in the playoff hunt. Dan Quinn’s team can clinch a playoff spot with a win over the Falcons next week, which would have good and bad consequences for the Bucs.
As discussed before, a Washington win over Atlanta combined with a Tampa Bay win over Carolina would put Tampa Bay back in position to win the NFC South. But that Washington win would also knock Tampa Bay out of Wild Card contention, leaving the division as the only path. On the flip side, a Bucs win paired with a Falcons win over the Commanders would hurt the Bucs’ division chances, but it would also put the No. 7 seed back on the table heading into Week 18.
Because in that scenario, a Tampa Bay win over New Orleans on the season’s final weekend combined with another Washington loss – to Dallas – would have both the Bucs and Commanders at 10-7. The Bucs won when the two teams met in Week 1, meaning they would have the head-to-head tiebreaker and sneak into the playoffs as the NFC’s final Wild Card team.
Fox Sports’ Greg Auman put this simply:
(a Falcons loss to the Panthers in Week 18 would also do the trick)
— Greg Auman (@gregauman) December 23, 2024
Here’s a look at the full NFC Playoff Picture through Week 16:
1. Lions – 13-2 (NFC North leader)
2. Eagles – 12-3 (NFC East leader)
3. Rams – 9-6 (NFC West leader)
4. Falcons – 8-7 (NFC South leader)
5. Vikings – 13-2 (NFC Wild Card No. 1)
6. Packers – 10-4 (NFC Wild Card No. 2)
7. Commanders – 10-5 (NFC Wild Card No. 3)
——–In the Hunt——–
8. Bucs – 8-7
9. Seahawks – 8-7
*Packers still to play vs. Saints on Monday Night Football
NFL.com currently gives the Bucs a 51% chance to make the playoffs.
The Bucs have plenty of work to do themselves, as they need to beat the Panthers and Saints to finish 10-7. As Auman outlined, the two routes from there are:
Tampa Bay is back at home on Sunday, hosting 4-11 Carolina with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET.
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The Dallas Cowboys got one step closer to regular season form by wearing pads for the first time in training camp. Below are some of the main takeaways from Sunday's practice in Oxnard, California, starting off with a couple of notes on rookies. Jaydon Blue's skills translate with pads on Blue was turning heads early in camp but it's always hard to tell the difference between a tackle or a big play when defenders are essentially playing tag instead of hitting players. Well, Blue looked promising even in pads, with the play below being the highlight of the day as he jukes Markquese Bell to break free for the extra yardage. The fifth-round rookie also showed off his speed as a receiver more than once. Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders are seeing the most playing time with the starters but Blue is off to a great start. Tyler Booker stacks highlights vs. Osa Odighizuwa It was a good day for the Cowboys' first-round rookie and projected starting right guard Tyler Booker. The play that stood out the most was a reach block on Osa Odighizuwa that sent the defensive lineman to the ground, opening a hole for Javonte Williams. ln a play-action play, Booker joined forces with center Cooper Beebe to take Odighizuwa out of the play. After a double block sent the defender to the ground, Booker blocked Odighizuwa with fully-extended arms to keep him away from Dak Prescott. Cowboys HC Brian Schottenheimer said ahead of practice that Booker had hit a bit of a wall leading to him working with the second-team the day before. He sure bounced back. Cowboys showing off a jumbo package Schottenheimer and offensive coordinator Klayton Adams have said the Cowboys will run a physical offense. In short yardage situations, that might mean running six offensive lineman onto the field. Asim Richards and Saahdiq Charles have both been used as a sixth OL/TE at practice. Below is a play where Charles even motions from one side to the OL to the other. The personnel grouping below includes fullback Hunter Luepke leading the way for the running back. Terence Steele participates in pads Earlier in training camp, right tackle Terence Steele suffered an ankle sprain that knocked him out of practice, raising concern for his availability moving forward. That concern is turning out to be short-lived. Steele was back Sunday, a major development for the first practice in pads. However, he didn't participate in team drills. Even so, the Cowboys appear to have dodged a major bullet as the injury was a high ankle sprain, which can be a headache for players. Steele wore tape on his ankle Sunday.
The Pittsburgh Penguins have been a team that opposing sides have been watching all offseason long. Pittsburgh has a few veteran players who could be on the move via trade, and it could see the front office be very active. With the Penguins in full rebuild mode, the team seems to be looking ahead to the future. One player that has been discussed in different deals is veteran defenseman Erik Karlsson. Karlsson still has two years remaining on his current contract, including this upcoming season. The veteran is owed $11.5 million in each year, so any team that would trade for him would need to take on his high salary. According to NHL insider Shayna Goldman, the options for the Penguins in any potential Karlsson trade have started to dwindle. But the Carolina Hurricanes and Ottawa Senators were mentioned as potential options to land the star defender. Last season with the Penguins, Karlsson scored 11 goals and 42 assists over 82 games. Karlsson showed impressive production for Pittsburgh, and he could be a valuable asset to any team that would trade for him. At this point in his career, Karlsson likely wants to play for a contending team. Both the Hurricanes and Senators could provide him with this, with both sides making the playoffs last season. Pittsburgh could likely net some strong future assets in any Karlsson deal, giving them more of a path forward. Trading for a player like Karlsson could be risky due to his age, but this could also be a move to help push a team over the hump in the quest to win a Stanley Cup title.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been easing their way into training camp ahead of the 2025 season. The players have just been wearing helmets and shorts, and the pads will come on soon. Pittsburgh's training camp is always known as being one of the most intense in the league, and that is because Head Coach Mike Tomlin has his team go full contact, which is something other coaches around the NFL try to avoid. The pads will come on on Tuesday, and fans should expect to see some skirmishes as emotions rise throughout the rest of camp. Practices in just helmets and shorts are difficult for the big guys in the trenches. It is essentially impossible to simulate blocking without pads on, so the defenders and offensive linemen are itching for when the team gets to go full contact. Second-year offensive lineman Troy Fautanu spoke to the media on Sunday, and he shared how things have been going at practice, while also noting that the two sides of the ball have been going at it. "You know, there's a lot of banter going on between the offense and the defense right now." Fautanu said. "As you guys could tell yesterday, things got a little rowdy. I mean, that's something that's normal. I'm super excited just to finally be able to play real football, because as an offensive lineman it's the worst thing to play football in shorts and t-shirts." Fautanu is probably itching to get back to full contact more than others after missing nearly all of his rookie season in 2024. He played in one game in Week 2 before suffering a knee injury that kept him out for the rest of the year. Tuesday will be the first time he gets to put the pads on and get truly physical in nearly a year. The way he described things, it sounds like there will probably be some confrontations as the offense and defense have already been going at it. Training camp is going to be a true test for Fautanu. He is the team's starting right tackle going into the season, and the organization is relying on the offensive line to take a step forward. He needs to try to live up to his first-round label, and he is going to have to do so while blocking TJ Watt in every practice. Watt is going to be moving around the defensive formation more often than usual, but most of his snaps will come when he is lined up over the right tackle. Fautanu is going to be tested on every snap, and if he can handle Watt, he can handle anyone in the league. Having to go up against Watt every day in practice is good for Fautanu in the long run. Practicing against the best is only going to make him better, and he won't have to block anyone during the 2025 regular season that is as good of a pass rusher as Watt. Steelers' Fautanu Could Solidify 2024 Draft For Pittsburgh It is already looking like the Steelers made a ton of right decisions during the 2024 NFL Draft. Zach Frazier had a spectacular rookie season in 2024, and he is looking like he could be one of the best centers in the league. Mason McCormick was a pleasant surprise at right tackle when he was thrust into the starting lineup, and it seems he has gotten considerably better over the course of the 2025 offseason. If Fautanu can prove he is the starting right tackle of the future for the Steelers, then the organization would have nailed three cornerstones of the franchise in just one draft. All contenders have solid offensive lines, and it looks like the Steelers might have one that could be great in the near future.
The longtime former Toronto Maple Leafs defenseman Conor Timmins is in a serious contract dispute with his new team, the Buffalo Sabres. Nobody appears happy to stay with the Buffalo Sabres organization. Most of the talented players on the team were included in trade or free agency rumors, and now, Timmins doesn't appear too excited to sign with the team. Indeed, the Restricted Free Agent, who was traded by the Pittsburgh Penguins to the Sabres earlier this offseason for Connor Clifton and a second-round pick, isn't close to reaching a deal in Buffalo. With arbitration hearings set to take place over the coming days, Timmins and the Sabres are likely to meet for that reason soon. Unless a deal is reached before then, the hearing will take place on August 2nd. The Ontario native is coming off a rocky season, where he played 51 games for the Leafs and 17 more in Pittsburgh after being traded. In those 68 games, the 26-year-old defenseman tallied 15 points, including three goals. After seeing three players around the NHL reach deals before their hearing date, some fans hoped to see the Sabres and Timmins sign a contract soon, but multiple reports confirmed that there hasn't been any 'traction' between both camps. As of now, five more players are scheduled to have salary hearings. Here's the full list, per PuckPedia: Arvid Soderblom (Chicago Blackhawks) - July 28 Maksim Tsyplakov (New York Islanders) - July 29 Dylan Samberg (Winnipeg Jets) - July 30 Conor Timmins (Buffalo Sabres) - August 2 Nicholas Robertson (Toronto Maple Leafs) - August 3 Jayden Struble (Montreal Canadiens) - August 3 It'll be interesting to see what kind of contract Timmins would get in a hearing, or if a deal will be reached before the date. With the Sabres' reputation, it's not surprising to see that he appears reluctant to sign in Buffalo. Hopefully for their fans, massive changes will be done to the team to make sure they can attract top talent and convince them to stay with the team.