Bucs vs. Browns: SR’s Pick-6 Preview

What’s At Stake For The Browns?

Todd Monken inherited quite a rebuilding project in Cleveland, which has not had any stable quarterback play since Baker Mayfield took the franchise to the second round of the playoffs in 2020. Ever since jettisoning Mayfield in 2022, the Browns have started 10 different quarterbacks and have gone 8-26 over the past two seasons prior to Sunday’s loss in Jacksonville. That led to Kevin Stefanski and Cleveland parting ways in the offseason and the arrival of Monken, a noted offensive guru.

Cleveland isn’t expected to win on Sunday, so expect Monken to dial up some trick plays and throw the kitchen sink at Todd Bowles’ defense, which gave up 26 points in Cincinnati on Sunday. Starting quarterback Deshaun Watson was terrible in the season opener, getting sacked five times and throwing an interception. He could get a quick hook in favor of Shedeur Sanders in Week 2 if he struggles again in Tampa Bay on Sunday.

The Bucs Win If…

Tampa Bay beat itself as much as Cincinnati did last week. Losing the turnover margin with a minus-3 mark is not the recipe for success. The Bucs need to continue to be balanced on offense and run the ball and use play-action. As much as Baker Mayfield wants revenge against his former team, he needs to play under control and not force things with his arm or his legs. Protecting the football will be paramount this week.

And for every time Tampa Bay does turn the ball over, there has to be an obligation by Todd Bowles’ defense to get it back with a takeaway. Josiah Trotter’s pick-six last week was great, but Bowles’ defense needs to be more opportunistic in Week 2 and force multiple takeaways. The Bucs pass rush needs to come alive against a shaky Browns offensive line and atone for last week’s weak effort getting after Joe Burrow. And another week of smothering coverage by Tampa Bay’s cornerbacks against the Browns’ rookie receivers will also be key.

The Browns Win If…

Cleveland’s offense has to come out test Tampa Bay’s run defense, which was too porous at times last week in Cincinnati. If Todd Monken’s backs can run the ball and take some of the pressure off Deshaun Watson, it will limit the quarterback’s penchant for bad throws and turnovers. Watson needs to be better protected up front and properly identify the blitzers that Todd Bowles will bring on Sunday. Cleveland’s rookie receiver tandem of Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion need to grow up fast, get behind the Bucs secondary and make plays. Using tight end Harold Fannin Jr. to try to exploit linebacker Alex Anzalone in coverage would also be a wise strategy.

Defensively, there is no more Myles Garrett to lean on. Now the pressure must come from up the middle from defensive tackle Mason Graham, who had the Browns’ lone sack last week, and middle linebacker Carson Schwesinger, who was the AFC Defensive Rookie of the Year in 2025. Cleveland needs to rattle Baker Mayfield into some more mistakes and not fall behind by a wide margin. If the visiting Browns can make this a close game heading into the fourth quarter, all of the pressure is suddenly on the Buccaneers to win it at the end.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Offense

Bucs Wide Receivers vs. Browns Cornerbacks

Cleveland has an absolute stud cornerback in Denzel Ward, a former first-round pick out of Ohio State. He was the Browns’ top defender by a mile last week, according to Pro Football Focus. Ward had a 90.5 defensive grade and a 90.8 coverage grade, allowing just two catches for four yards at Jacksonville. The problem for Cleveland is that the team has just one Ward – and the Bucs have multiple receivers that can hurt opposing defenses.

Ward typically plays outside, so look for him to likely draw Emeka Egbuka as an assignment, or possibly Jalen McMillan if he is healthy enough to play. But the other two cornerbacks, Tyson Campbell outside and Miles Harden in the slot, gave up three receptions for 43 yards and four catches for 54 yards and a touchdown, respectively, to the Jaguars.

With Ward possibly erasing one of Tampa Bay’s targets, Baker Mayfield has plenty of others to throw to in slot receiver Chris Godwin Jr., Ted Hurst III and McMillan if he plays. If McMillan doesn’t play then Tez Johnson and Kam Johnson could see more snaps on offense as a result. Either way, the Bucs’ strength on offense is their receivers, and outside of Ward, the Browns cornerbacks are a perceived weakness that Mayfield will look to exploit if he can get more time to throw in Week 2.

Bucs’ Key Matchup On Defense

Bucs Defensive Line vs. Browns Offensive Line

The Bucs defensive line put on an embarrassing performance in Cincinnati last week as Joe Burrow was the least pressured quarterback in Week 1. Burrow was sacked just once and the outside linebacker tandem of Yaya Diaby and Rueben Bain Jr. recorded just one tackle (Diaby), one pressure (Diaby), one QB hit (Diaby), and of course, zero sacks. The defensive tackle tandem of Calijah Kancey and Vita Vea didn’t fare much better, with neither player recording a tackle or a sack. Only A’Shawn Robinson was a factor with five tackles and a QB hit.

Now it’s time to make amends for Week 1 with the Browns coming to town. Deshaun Watson was sacked five times last week, primarily due to holding on to the ball too long. He was also forced to scramble six times for a team-high 38 yards rushing. Tampa Bay should be able to get to Watson multiple times on Sunday if they bring a more determined attitude.

The Browns offensive line isn’t as good as the Bengals’ was last week, and Cleveland could not run the ball effectively, mustering just 87 yards on the ground, which ranks 24th in the league. Tampa Bay’s run defense wasn’t as stout as everyone expected it to be, surrendering 106 yards in Cincinnati, which ranks 14th in the NFL. Can the Bucs keep the Browns’ run game at bay and then tee off on Watson?