Buffalo Bills at New York Jets predictions, odds, preview: Raybon's NFL picks for 'Monday Night Football'

Bills vs. Jets Odds, Pick, Prediction

• Bills vs. Jets spread: Bills -1
• Bills vs. Jets over/under: 41 points
• Bills vs. Jets moneyline: Bills -120, Jets +100
• Bills vs. Jets pick: Jets +2.5

My Jets vs. Bills best bet is on the Jets to cover the spread (+1). For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.

Spread

I like the Jets +1. The trends support New York bouncing back, and Rodgers has thrived in his career as an underdog.

Moneyline

I’m not betting either side of the moneyline and am taking the point.

Over/Under

No play, but for those interested, Primetime unders are 165-109-3 (60%) since 2019, covering by 1.5 points per game, according to our Action Labs data.

My pick: Jets +1 (-110)

Buffalo Bills vs. New York Jets NFL 'Monday Night Football' Preview

For all the hate newly fired Jets head coach Robert Saleh and current Bills head coach Sean McDermott have been getting, the coach in this game who arguably deserves the most criticism is Bills offensive coordinator Joe Brady.

Despite having an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen, Brady’s offense completely failed to set Allen up for success and fell apart in the last two weeks the minute it faced an above-average defense.

• Week 1 vs. Arizona (26th def DVOA, 29th pass D): Won 34-28, Allen 18-of-23 (78.3%) for 232 yards (10.1 yards per attempt), two touchdowns.
• Week 2 at Miami (25th def DVOA, 19th pass D): Won 31-10, Allen 13-of-19 (68.4%) for 139 yards (7.3 yards per attempt), one touchdown.
• Week 3 vs. Jacksonville (32nd def DVOA, 32nd pass D): Won 47-10, Allen 23-of-30 (76.7%) for 263 yards (8.8 yards per attempt), four touchdowns.
• Week 4 at Baltimore (14th def DVOA, 16th pass D): Lost 35-10, Allen 16-of-29 (55.2%) for 180 yards (6.2 yards per attempt), no touchdowns.
• Week 5: at Houston (third def DVOA, fifth pass D): Lost 23-20, Allen 9-of-30 (30.0%) for 131 yards (4.4 yards per attempt), one touchdown.

The Jets defense is 12th overall and seventh against the pass. The Jets are 24th against the run but stiffened last week against Minnesota, allowing 82 yards on 30 carries. Either way, this sets up as another spot in which the Bills will struggle to move the ball through the air.

The Jets are getting pressure on 39.8% of dropbacks, which ranks fourth. Under pressure, Allen has a league-low 36.4% completion rate. Save for Khalil Shakir (ankle), who practiced only once this week in a limited fashion and is not 100%, the Bills don’t have a wide receiver who can reliably separate among Keon Coleman, Mack Hollins, Curtis Samuel and Marquez Valdes-Scantling.

Brady compounds these issues with head-scratching snap distributions. Despite being their best wide receiver, Shakir has only been on the field for 73% of pass plays. Tight end Dalton Kincaid is their second-best receiver and has been on the field for only 69% of pass plays because he’s often subbed out for run-blocking purposes on early downs.

With Shakir out last week, there were third-down pass plays in which neither Kincaid nor Coleman were on the field. It’s one thing to commit to a run-heavy offense and move on from the expensive, disruptive Stefon Diggs, but it’s another thing to consistently take Allen’s highest-percentage pass targets off the field. It’s as if Bills brass has totally forgotten how Allen’s career took off with the arrival of Cole Beasley back in 2019.

Running backs Ray Davis and Ty Johnson have combined for 7.2 carries per game despite collectively averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and James Cook is also only playing 50% of the passing snaps. Even if Brady wanted to change that this week, Cook is questionable with a toe injury and was able to practice only once all week.

Defensively, the Bills are 10th in DVOA against the pass, but 24th in pressure rate. Von Miller, who is tied for the team lead in sacks (3.0) and is second on the team in pressures (13), is serving a four-game suspension. Ed Oliver, who is tied for third on the team in pressures (nine), will miss his second straight game with a hamstring injury.

The Jets offense has issues of their own, but Rodgers should be able to have success from a cleaner pocket than he’s seen the past two weeks against the Broncos and Vikings, who are both top-three in pressure rate.

The Bills corners have been good, but their safeties are shaky, and Rodgers should also be able to take advantage of their issues at linebacker in the absence of Matt Milano (IR, biceps) by dumping the ball down to Breece Hall and Braelon Allen against a defense that ranks 31st in DVOA on passes to running backs.

Demoted offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett is terrible at all things except being Rodgers’ bud and making Austin Powers references, so I’m still viewing Todd Downing as an upgrade. Downing’s play designs are superior to Hackett’s.

This is a good spot for the Jets. The coaching change from Robert Saleh to Jeff Ulbrich works in their favor here because it gives them the element of surprise schematically against what would otherwise be a familiar divisional foe. Both offenses are in disarray, and both coaching staffs leave much to be desired, but the Jets have the healthier and better defense, and they will be playing at home.

Per our Action Labs data. Week 6 underdogs vs. favorites with a winning straight-up record are 97-61-6 (61%) ATS since 2005.

Rodgers is 30-13 (70%) ATS in divisional home games, and he is 29-15 (66%) ATS off a SU loss when the line is shorter than -7.

Pick: Jets +2.5 (-110)

How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming

Jets vs. Bills is scheduled for an 8:15 p.m. ET start time, live from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, N.J., on Monday night. The game will be broadcast live by ESPN and is streaming on YouTube TV.