Buffalo Bills ceiling and floor for 2023

After being knocked out in the divisional round for the second straight season, the Buffalo Bills hope to finally break through in 2023 and win their first Super Bowl. The roster is as talented as ever, but whether the Bills can improve on their 13-3 record from 2022 remains up for debate.

Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Bills in 2023.

Ceiling: 13-4

The Bills return most of their explosive offense, spearheaded by quarterback Josh Allen, who threw for 4,283 yards and 35 touchdowns last season but led the league in turnovers. If Allen cuts down on turnovers, Buffalo should match last season's win total.

If Buffalo opens the season by defeating the Jets, it could start 3-0, as the team will face Las Vegas and Washington in the following two weeks. In Weeks 5-6, the Bills will take on the up-and-coming Jaguars and Giants, but Buffalo should have the edge. Assuming it prevails in both matchups, Buffalo should win comfortably against Tampa Bay (Week 8) and Denver (Week 10).

Week 17 and 18 tune-ups against division rivals New England and Miami will be beneficial for Buffalo's postseason run, and it should have little issue in either game. Since 2020, the Bills are 12-2 against the Patriots and Dolphins, including playoffs, with both losses coming by a combined six points. 

Floor: 10-7 

While the Bills have won at least 11 games each season since 2019, challenges lie ahead on and off the field. Aside from the rest of the AFC East improving significantly during the offseason, tensions between the organization and star wideout Stefon Diggs could carry over into the 2023 season. The issue is said to have been "resolved," but frustrations may resurface if the team experiences a slow start.

Additionally, Buffalo's defense might not be capable of repeating its success from last season, when the unit allowed the second-fewest points in the NFL. In free agency, the team lost LB Tremaine Edmunds, a key contributor, and there’s no guarantee that 34-year-old OLB Von Miller will bounce back from last season’s ACL tear. 

The final six games will be Buffalo's biggest challenge as it must play five teams that qualified for the playoffs in 2022. Their most prominent opponents during that span are both Super Bowl LVII competitors, Philadelphia and Kansas City. Regardless of the outcome, the Bills will know if they are championship contenders by Week 14 (complete schedule analysis here).