We’re through Week 11 of the NFL season and the playoff race is just heating up. As many as 21 teams can claim to be “in the hunt,” and no teams have been officially eliminated yet. Things are bound to get much crazier in the coming weeks.

As we approach clinching season, now is a good time to examine the field and make some projections. Today, I’m buying and selling playoff contenders based on my confidence in them. This is based on a combination of their ability to not only make the playoffs, but also to do some damage once they get there.

I didn’t base this just on vibes, either. I took a deep dive into some advanced metrics to see if they backed up my thoughts on each team — and I’ve outlined the analytical outlook for these teams as I break down why I’m in or out on them as playoff teams.

Without further ado, let’s jump right in:

Buying: Kansas City Chiefs

Yeah, the Chiefs are 5-5, coming off back-to-back losses and don’t look very inspiring right now. Rival fans are hoping their reign of league dominance is over, and with Kansas City currently sitting outside the playoff bracket after 11 weeks, there’s reason to believe the cracks might be showing for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era.

Except the Chiefs are still one of the best teams in the league by basically every metric. They have a +73 point differential, ranking sixth in the NFL and ahead of some notable teams such as the Broncos, Bills and Eagles. They rank second in EPA per play on offense, ninth in EPA per play allowed on defense, fourth in PFF pass blocking grade, eighth in PFF rushing grade, eighth in PFF defensive grade and third in PFF coverage grade. Their lowest rank in PFF’s system is actually passing grade, where the Chiefs rank just 20th.

That is the profile of a team much better than their 5-5 record would indicate. After going 11-0 in one-score games in 2024, Kansas City is 0-5 in such games this season. All their losses have been by seven points or fewer, and three of them have been by just three points. Those losses came against the Chargers, Eagles, Jaguars, Bills and Broncos — all teams currently sitting in playoff spots.

While they do need to start stacking wins to make good on those favorable metrics, the Chiefs have a forgiving upcoming schedule. After facing a high-flying Colts team in Week 12, the Chiefs close the season against the Cowboys, Texans, Chargers, Titans, Broncos, and Raiders. Kansas City has to feel optimistic about its chances to finish 10-7 or better, which likely nets them a wildcard berth. Theoretically, the division is still in play, but catching up to the Broncos (more on them later) will be a tall task.

The Chiefs do have real issues that are leading to these losses. They can’t run the ball situationally at all and their defensive line isn’t playing well. Mahomes isn’t performing up to his usual lofty standards, and the team has struggled to close out games. But unlike last season, when Kansas City kept racking up wins despite everyone knowing they weren’t as good as their record, this season the Chiefs keep losing close games despite having one of the stronger profiles in the NFL.

It’s more than just not wanting to face Mahomes in January. This is legitimately one of the strongest teams in the league, and if they do qualify for the playoffs, I wouldn’t want to be the team hosting them on wildcard weekend.

Selling: Denver Broncos

While the Chiefs are hampered by a .500 record and on the verge of losing the AFC West for the first time in ages, the Broncos are riding an eight-game win streak to a 9-2 record and the top seed in the AFC. Both of their losses came on field goals as time expired in games they led for the majority (against the Colts and Chargers), and they’ve stacked wins against the Eagles, Cowboys, Texans and Chiefs during this run.

But some of the advanced metrics don’t paint quite as rosy a picture. The Broncos rank 20th in EPA per play on offense, 15th in PFF offensive grade, 28th in PFF receiving grade, 14th in PFF run blocking grade and 15th in PFF coverage grade. Denver is winning games by an average of seven points, despite facing teams such as the Titans, Bengals, Jets, Giants and Raiders, teams that lend themselves to blowouts.

Profile-wise, the Broncos look a lot weaker compared to teams with similar records and reputations such as the Colts, Patriots, Seahawks, Eagles and Bills. To be clear, I’m not saying that Denver is a fraud or their wins are fluky — but I don’t think this team is quite as good as their record would indicate.

The Broncos do have several strong metrics on their team sheet. Denver leads the league in sacks (in fact with 49 sacks in 11 games, the Broncos are on pace to set the NFL single-season record of 72 held by the 1984 Bears) and has the best pass-blocking offensive line in the NFL. Being that strong in the trenches gives you a certain margin for error, one that Denver has certainly taken advantage of when needed this year.

It’s just hard to win games in the playoffs with an offense that struggles as much and as often as Denver’s has this year. They could absolutely win their division, but they close the season against the Packers, Jaguars, Chiefs and Chargers. The Broncos will need to finish the season strong to avoid falling back into the wildcard pool, and they’ll need to keep pace with some of the best scoring offenses come playoff time. I’m not convinced they can do that.

Buying: Los Angeles Rams & Seattle Seahawks

I don’t know that anyone is fading either of these teams at the moment, but it’s worth pointing out just how dominant both have been. The Rams got a two-point win over the Seahawks last week and their Week 16 rematch will be must-watch TV. One of these teams will have to be a wildcard team, but it wouldn’t surprise me if we see a third matchup in the NFC Championship.

Running through their metrics quickly, the Rams rank third in EPA per play on offense, third in EPA per play allowed on defense, first in PFF offense, run blocking, coverage and passing grades, second in PFF receiving, defense and run defense grades, and seventh in PFF pass rush grade. I’ve been saying that Los Angeles is the best team in the league for a while, and the metrics back that up and then some.

Meanwhile, the Seahawks are no slouches in their own right. Seattle ranks second in PFF offense grade, fifth in passing grade, first in receiving grade, third in rushing grade, fifth in EPA per play allowed on defense, seventh in PFF defense and run defense grades, 10th in pass rush grade and sixth in coverage grade. The Seahawks and Rams are second and third, respectively, in point differential through Week 11.

The eye test — and their resumes — paint both teams as among the NFL’s elite. The advanced metrics agree, and while Los Angeles won the first meeting, they’re on a collision course for more. It would be a safe bet to pick one of these teams to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

Selling: Los Angeles Chargers

It’s tough for the Chargers to be in this position, given the brutal injuries they’ve suffered along the offensive line. All-Pro LT Rashawn Slater went down for the year in training camp, and ascending second-year RT Joe Alt slid over to the left side to replace him, only for Alt to suffer multiple high-ankle sprains. He’s now also done for the year.

At 7-4, the Chargers currently sit as the six-seed in the AFC. I’m not optimistic they can stay there. Los Angeles currently ranks 15th in the NFL in point differential and the upcoming schedule isn’t easy. They still face the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans and Broncos — not the slate you want to have upcoming with a shaky offensive line.

The advanced metrics aren’t bullish on this team, either. The Chargers are 14th in EPA per play on offense, 19th in PFF offense grade, 31st in pass blocking grade, 32nd in run blocking grade, 14th in PFF defense grade, 21st in pass rush grade and 20th in run defense grade. They have a strong secondary and QB Justin Herbert is a gamer with a cadre of weapons at his disposal, but that kind of disadvantage in the trenches will be an issue in January.

It’s a crowded field in the AFC wildcard picture, with as many as six teams vying for three spots. I won’t be shocked if the Chargers managed to hold onto the seventh seed, but it won’t be easy. Even if they do, this isn’t a team I’d be worried about facing in the playoffs.

Other teams I’m buying: Philadelphia Eagles, Houston Texans, Detroit Lions

Other teams I’m selling: Pittsburgh Steelers, San Francisco 49ers, Carolina Panthers