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Can Josh Allen finally have his playoff breakthrough?

Originally posted on Ball Exclusives | By Cameron Joyce | Last updated Jan 10, 2026 2:21 PM ET

For the past few years, Josh Allen has struggled to get over the playoff hump. Patrick Mahomes and Joe Burrow have always gotten the better of him and have prevented Allen from reaching the Super Bowl. However, this year is different. The Chiefs, Bengals, and even the Ravens all missed the playoffs, which makes Allen’s path much easier on paper. The question is, can he finally do it.

It has been an up-and-down season for the Bills. They finished 12-5, lost the AFC East to the Patriots, and have to play the Jaguars on the road in the first round of the playoffs. The Bills had previously won the AFC East every since 2020.

The Bills have NEVER won a road playoff game with Josh Allen at QB

Will that change in Jacksonville? pic.twitter.com/YJnzZMfiSd

— TSN (@TSN_Sports) January 10, 2026

Allen has had great success with the Bills offense this season. They averaged 28.3 points per game, which was fourth in the league, led the league in rushing yards per game with 159.6 and were second in the league in touchdowns with 62. Allen himself has put up solid numbers with 3,668 passing yards with 25 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He also has 14 rushing touchdowns on the season, which is third in the league.

However, the Jaguars will test Allen’s ability. The Jaguars have the best run defense in the league, only allowing 85.6 yards per game, which may limit Allen’s run support. They also average 1.8 takeaways per game, which was second in the league. Allen will have to be extra cautious with his decision-making it he wants to take advantage of a stingy Jaguars defense.

If the Bills were to lose, it would most likely lead to major changes in Buffalo, whether it be head coach Sean McDermott or Allen. Allen’s legacy may be tarnished too, knowing that he can’t get over the hump even with a much easier path without Mahomes.

"If [Josh Allen] loses this game, it's on him."@Realrclark25 sets the stakes for the Bills quarterback heading into the AFC Wild Card Game pic.twitter.com/n4phJfqcpG

— NFL on ESPN (@ESPNNFL) January 9, 2026