
ARIZONA — Though it's one game, the difference in a team being 1-3 and 2-2 feels like night and day.
Historically speaking, 14% of teams who start 1-3 have made the postseason. That number jumps to 40% if a team is 2-2.
Campaigns are not made or broken in Week 4 — especially after the NFL added an extra game to the regular season — but the Arizona Cardinals and rookie head coach Mike LaFleur are staring their first real test of 2026 directly in the face.
That sounds a bit odd after the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks handed the Cardinals consecutive losses in the last two weeks, but in reality Arizona wasn't truly expected to emerge victorious in either matchup.
Arizona wasn't favored in a single game entering the 2026 season, which made their Week 1 win over the Los Angeles Chargers one of the biggest upsets of the early NFL schedule. The Cardinals proved capable of winning, though a tough two-piece from the NFC West quickly humbled Arizona in the standings.
The bags are currently being packed for New York, where the Giants own a 2-1 record despite being down franchise passer Jaxson Dart and star pass rusher Brian Burns. Week 4's battle at MetLife Stadium is undoubtedly a massive matchup for both sides.
New York isn't some sort of Super Bowl contender. Aspiring playoff team under new coach John Harbaugh? Absolutely, but the Giants are still climbing their way up the pecking order before planning parades.
In a daunting schedule that's one of the hardest in the league, Arizona's trip to the Big Apple is one of few games the team should conceivably win. Oddsmakers agree, placing the Cardinals as slight favorites on Sunday.
Week 4 might be the only game the Cardinals are truly expected to win in the near future. While the NFL is undoubtedly a week-to-week league where the mantra "Any given Sunday" rings true, there's also truth to expectations.
The expectations around LaFleur and his first season in Arizona are interesting. It was widely known the Cardinals were entering a sort-of rebuild year under the rookie coach, though pitchforks are already out after a 1-2 start.
How does a LaFleur-led team, with three games under their belt, respond to expectations for the first time?
"I think the great teams are the ones that do all the stuff that take no talent," LaFleur said Friday.
"Stuff's going to happen post-snap. You are in command, out of control. There's 22 variables. Obviously, all the players. There's the variable of the actual play call. Is it a good play call? Is it a bad play call? There's the official variable. There's so many things that can happen when the ball's snapped but the best teams I've been a part of are the ones that are just so sharp pre-snap, and we're working to get to that point."
The Cardinals are not currently a great team, but they believe the path is currently being paved. That's by both design and necessity.
The NFL often stands for "Not For Long" when you're not winning, and while LaFleur's seat in the desert couldn't be colder, Arizona's head coach knows average just isn't going to cut it.
“We’re not trying to be in the middle of the pack. That’s just not what we’re trying to do. Middle of the pack, you’re going to have someone new sitting up here," he acknowledged earlier this week.
After 60 minutes of football on Sunday, the Cardinals either drop to 1-3 and amplify roadblocks to a successful season or emerge to 2-2, keeping themselves afloat early in a tough NFC West.
Make no mistakes about it, this is a massive week.
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