Carolina Panthers ceiling and floor for 2023

A franchise-record fifth consecutive losing season ushered in the next era of Panthers football. Head coach Frank Reich and QB Bryce Young are the fresh faces expected to bring Carolina out of its rut, which is certainly possible.

Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Panthers in 2023:

Ceiling: 9-8

Carolina could snap its streak of consecutive losing seasons with improved quarterback play. Among QBs with at least 320 offensive snaps last season, former Panthers QB Baker Mayfield ranked last in expected points added per play. Carolina was 1-5 in those starts. Sam Darnold was better in his 181 plays, ranking ninth in EPA per play among QBs with at least 181 plays, and the Panthers went 4-2.

Quickly moved to first team by Reich, Young has received a ton of praise during offseason workouts, and if he pans out, he will be a better pro than Mayfield or Darnold. Losing WR D.J. Moore in the trade that landed Young hurts, but Carolina did a decent job of filling that void by signing another D.J. (Chark), as well as veteran wide receiver Adam Thielen and tight end Hayden Hurst. 

The defense has talent on all three levels and a defensive coordinator (Ejiro Evero) who should be a head coach within a couple of years. The only reason Carolina's ceiling isn't higher is that it's going against recent history. Per StatMuse, only three QBs (Lamar Jackson, Mac Jones, Dak Prescott) have won at least 10 games as a rookie over the past 10 seasons.

Floor: 7-10

Reich should raise the team's floor even if Young hits a couple of speed bumps in his first season. In four-plus seasons as Colts head coach, Reich had a record of 40-33-1 starting the likes of QBs Jacoby Brissett, Carson Wentz, and past-their-primes Philip Rivers and Matt Ryan during his time with the organization. Young is Reich's most talented QB since he coached Andrew Luck in 2018, when the Colts went 10-6. 

A major concern for Carolina is the team's brutal early schedule. Young isn't afforded a warm reception with two division games to start the season (at Atlanta, vs. New Orleans), followed by four games against teams that finished a combined 40-28 in 2022. The Panthers could be staring at a 2-4 record by the time they reach their bye in Week 7. Things ease up after that. Per ESPN projections, Carolina is favored in five of its final 11 games.