NFL: New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers Gary A. Vasquez-Imagn Images

Chargers vs. Giants Bold Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4

Originally posted on LAFB Network | By Ryan Anderson | Last updated Sep 25, 2025 2:10 PM ET

The Los Angeles Chargers (3-0) visit MetLife Stadium on Sunday, September 28, to take on the winless New York Giants (0-3) in an NFL Week 4 showdown. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS. Los Angeles enters as a 6.5-point favorite with the total set at 44 points.

Chargers vs. Giants Odds, Spread, and Total

Spread: Chargers -6.5 (-110), Giants +6.5 (-110)
Moneyline: Chargers -300, Giants +240
Over/Under: 44 points

The winning team model projects an 84.5% chance that Los Angeles will take the victory, factoring in recent performance, injuries, and matchup dynamics. Against the spread, the model is equally confident in the Chargers covering the 6.5-point margin.

Key Players to Watch

Chargers vs. Giants Bold Prediction, Odds, Spread, Injuries, Trends for NFL Week 4 1 William Navarro-Imagn Images

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Justin Herbert, Quarterback, Chargers

Herbert leads the NFL with 860 passing yards and is tied for third in passing touchdowns with six. After a rough Week 3 where he threw his first interception and completed just 59.6% of passes, he will look to bounce back against a Giants defense allowing 252 passing yards per game.

Jaxson Dart, Quarterback, Giants

Giants quarterback Jaxson Dart, informed Tuesday that he will start Sunday, expressed confidence in his preparation and readiness. He praised the support from coach Brian Daboll, the organization, and benched quarterback Russell Wilson, calling the environment “professional” and humbling. Dart downplayed franchise-savior expectations, emphasizing teamwork, though the Giants clearly need him to help turn their season around, with Daboll acknowledging the high stakes for his starting role.

Betting Trends and Insights

The Chargers are 2-0-1 ATS this season and 1-0 as road favorites. Their high-powered passing attack has converted first downs on just 46% of plays on second-and-short situations since 2024 but excels in the fourth quarter with a 71% success rate on pass attempts.

The Giants are 1-2 ATS at home and rank near the bottom of the league in several offensive efficiency metrics. They have converted just 3 of 32 red-zone plays and average -0.41 EPA per play at MetLife Stadium this season.

Prediction and Pick

Los Angeles has demonstrated consistency against both division and non-division opponents, including wins over Kansas City, Las Vegas, and Denver. Meanwhile, the Giants have struggled to generate offense outside of a Week 1 overtime loss in Dallas.

Given the Chargers’ offensive firepower and New York’s inefficiencies at home, Los Angeles is projected to cover the 6.5-point spread. Expect Herbert to exploit a porous secondary, connecting frequently with Keenan Allen, Quentin Johnston, and Ladd McConkey.

Pick: Chargers -6 (-110 at DraftKings)

This article first appeared on LAFB Network and was syndicated with permission.

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