Chicago Bears: FPI indicates team may take a step back in 2026 for 2 key reasons

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Chicago Bears: FPI indicates team may take a step back in 2026 for 2 key reasons

Originally posted on ChiCitySports | By Robin Adams | Last updated Jun 5, 2026 8:58 PM ET

The Chicago Bears were one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last year. After going 5-12 in 2024, they hired Ben Johnson as their new head coach and started putting pieces around him that would fit his scheme. As it turned out, the Bears could not have made a better hire.

In 2025, Chicago went 11-6, won the NFC North, and advanced to the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs. They stopped their years-long losing streak against the Green Bay Packers, and went 2-1 against last year (including playoffs).

As the 2026 season draws near, expectations are high for the Bears to not only repeat last season’s success, but be even better. However, there may be two key factors that hold them back.

FPI predicts the Green Bay Packers will take a step back in 2026

Jan 10, 2026; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams (18) warms up prior to an NFC Wild Card Round game against the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. Mandatory Credit: David Banks-Imagn Images

ESPN recently published an article in which they analyzed how their Football Power Index (FPI) projects the 2026 NFL season to go. Unfortunately for the Bears, it does not bode well for them:

“Chicago broke through last season, going 11-6 to win the NFC North and adding its first playoff win in 15 years. But the numbers suggest the Bears overachieved. They ranked seventh and 19th in offensive and defensive EPA per play, respectively, but that defensive number was entirely reliant on turnovers. Chicago’s defense ranked 30th on non-turnover plays. Plus, while quarterback Caleb Williams delivered repeated jaw-dropping plays, he also ranked only 16th in QBR.

“The Bears might show growth in 2026 and become the Super Bowl contender their fans hope for them to be. But the FPI does not see that as a likelihood because of the combination of last season’s metrics and the first-place schedule they’ll face in 2026. Chicago is a light underdog to make the playoffs (46.5%) and has only a 19.4% chance to win the NFC North — roughly half of the Lions’ chances.”

As one can see, their projects do not rule out the possibility of Chicago taking a step forward in 2026. However, the FPI does see it as improbable.

In order for the Bears to prove these projections wrong, they are going to have to improve their pass rush. Most of their turnover machines from a year ago are gone. This year’s defense is going to have to find new ways to stop opposing offenses.

What is more, because they won the NFC North, Chicago is going to be playing a first-place schedule in 2026. This makes their games tougher, at least on paper, than they were last year.

As mentioned, there is entirely a possibility that Johnson leads his team forward to new heights in 2026. However, every NFL season is different and the Bears have to adapt to the new challenges that are in front of them. If they can, they will be a Super Bowl contender. If they cannot, they will be on the outside looking in again.

This article first appeared on ChiCitySports and was syndicated with permission.

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