Chiefs-Broncos under is scary, but worth it

We've got a grab bag of NFL picks here for Sunday. Whether you like betting on the spread, on the total, or on player props, we have you covered.

Titans -4

Tennessee is fresh off an embarrassing 25-point loss in Philadelphia, while Jacksonville was just destroyed by Detroit, 40-14. Both AFC South teams will look to right the ship here, and we'd much prefer to put our wagers behind the Titans.

Tennessee is 8-4 ATS while Jacksonville is 4-8, and the Titans have won five straight against the Jaguars. These wins weren't of the nail-biter variety, either. Tennessee has taken three straight by at least 18 points. We expect them to get Derrick Henry going after he was shut down in Week 13 and control the pace of this game from start to finish. With Trevor Lawrence a bit banged up as well, all the more reason to take the Titans at home to cover this 4-point spread.

Chiefs-Broncos under 44

We're blindly betting Broncos unders for the rest of the season and we don't care. This one is the scariest yet, as Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs pour on points on the road, going over this 44-point total in five of their six away games this season.

At some point, you need to just trust in the trends and ride out a profitable angle until it proves us otherwise. Denver is an elite 11-1 to the under this season, which is both a testament to their defensive strength and an indictment of their offensive woes. They have not seen a game reach the 40s since Week 4, and we're betting that streak continues on Sunday.

TJ Hockenson touchdown (+180 DK)

To us, this is a slam dunk pick that meshes data with the coveted "revenge" narrative. First the data: the Lions are allowing the second-most touchdowns to tight ends this season, and Hockenson has been targeted a mammoth 40 times in the past five weeks, with eight of them coming in the red zone.

With Hockenson's role well-established in Minnesota, we turn to why we expect him to find the end zone. Detroit surprisingly dealt their former first-round pick near the deadline, to a division rival no less. With Hockenson set to return to Detroit, we feel safe in assuming he'd like to make his former team regret their decision. With a soft defense awaiting and volume in tow, expect a Hockenson touchdown on Sunday. The last revenge angle in the NFL? See AJ Brown scoring twice last week against the Titans.

In the news ...

Falcons to start rookie Desmond Ridder at QB in Week 15 — Atlanta is moving Marcus Mariota to the bench in favor of third-round rookie passer Desmond Ridder after their bye this weekend. The move comes on the heels of Atlanta's fourth loss in their past five games, with the Falcons failing to exceed 20 points in each of those defeats. Ridder offers a mobile element and perhaps a stronger arm, and it will be interesting to see if the rookie can do enough to give Atlanta confidence in him in 2023. As it stands, the Falcons are just 1.5 games back of first in the NFC South at 5-8, and with games against the Saints and Bucs remaining, it's not inconceivable to think Atlanta could win this lowly division. If you're a believer in Ridder, you can grab Atlanta to win the NFC South at +1200.

Baker Mayfield wins first start as a Ram — Well, we didn't see this one coming. Just two days after being claimed off waivers, Baker Mayfield played every offensive snap for Los Angeles and led them to a last-second victory over the Raiders. The loss by the Raiders has all but torpedoed the slim playoff hopes they had, as the New York Times now gives Las Vegas just a 4% chance of making the playoffs.

World Cup quarterfinals today and tomorrow — By late Saturday afternoon we'll have our final four countries vying to be the 2022 World Cup champion. Friday's action brings us Croatia-Brazil in the morning followed by Netherlands and Argentina at 2 p.m. ET. Saturday heads to the other end of the bracket with England-France and Morocco-Portugal. The favorites to advance are Brazil (-600), Argentina (-165), Portugal (-300), and France (-130). Of the four, we like Argentina to fall today, so load us up on the Netherlands to advance at +135.

Today's Bark Bets is written by Griffin Carroll