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Chiefs' Playoff Odds Revealed After Thanksgiving Loss To Cowboys
Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Chiefs' Playoff Odds Revealed After Thanksgiving Loss To Cowboys

Originally posted on The Spun  |  By Chris Rosvoglou  |  Last updated Nov 27, 2025 10:29 PM ET

For the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era, the Kansas City Chiefs are in serious jeopardy of missing the playoffs.

On Thursday, the Chiefs suffered a 31-28 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Dak Prescott carved up Steve Spagnuolo's defense for 320 yards and two touchdowns. His primary target was CeeDee Lamb, who hauled in seven passes for 112 yards. George Pickens also stepped up with six catches for 88 yards.

Coming into this Thanksgiving game, Kansas City was behind the Buffalo Bills, Jacksonville Jaguars and Los Angeles Chargers in the Wild Card race. At 6-5, the Chiefs were "in the hunt" along with the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Now that Kansas City has dropped to 6-6, Andy Reid's squad has officially entered "must win out" territory.

Nov 27, 2025; Arlington, Texas, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) throws a pass against the Dallas Cowboys during the fourth quarter at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images

Analytics aren't on KC's side.

As of this Thursday night, the Chiefs have a 46% chance of making the playoffs. That number drops to 18% with a loss to the Texans in Week 14. A win only improves their chances by 12%.

That being said, Kansas City has to win out in order to have a 52% chance of getting into the playoffs.

The road ahead for the Chiefs won't be easy, especially since the Texans are playing their best football of the season.

In Week 15, the Chiefs will take on the Chargers. They lost their Week 1 meeting in Brazil.

Do you think the Chiefs will miss the playoffs?

This article first appeared on The Spun and was syndicated with permission.

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