Chiefs vs. 49ers player props: Super Bowl bets fading Justin Watson & Jauan Jennings

WR Justin Watson

Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110 DraftKings)

My favorite part of the Super Bowl is seeing the unique prop markets only offered for the Super Bowl (i.e. punter props) or the new markets that we see every year. First-quarter receiving props aren’t necessarily new but whenever I’ve seen them offered, it’s typically for star players and they’ve looked pretty accurate.

However, when I saw them float this one for Justin Watson, I already knew there would be value on the under before even diving into the numbers.

The first step needed to clear this number is to at least secure a catch in the first quarter. In order to be around a coin flip to catch a pass, his projection would need to be around 0.7 receptions. Intuitively, it might seem like 0.5 projected receptions would represent a coin flip that he catches a pass, but based on the distribution of receptions, 0.7 would be a 50/50 chance of catching at least one pass.

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I’m projecting Watson closer to 1.6 receptions for the full game. If we divide it up evenly for all four quarters, we would have around a 0.4 reception projection for him. That translates to about a 34% chance he catches a pass and a 66% chance he doesn’t catch a pass in the first quarter. Therefore, we are already starting with about a 66% chance he fails to catch a pass in the first quarter and the under hits.

However, there’s a chance that Watson catches a pass and it’s three or fewer yards. Three of Watson's 30 receptions this season have gone for three or fewer yards.

Factoring all of this in, I’m showing him with about a 71% chance he stays under 3.5 yards in the first quarter. Using the odds table below, you'll see that this market should probably just be 0.5 receiving yards, heavily juiced to the under:

There may be even more value when you consider that Watson tends to get fewer receptions in the first quarter specifically, with only 13% of his catches this season coming in the opening 15 minutes. There's probably quite a bit of noise here, but it would make sense that the second quarter specifically would be ideal for him given the potential for a 2-minute drill. If you were to factor in some of his first-quarter splits, there would be even more value on the under.

WR Jauan Jennings

Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110 DraftKings)

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It makes sense for Jennings to have a similar prop as Watson, which also means I’m showing value on his under, as well, for all the same reasons.

I’m also projecting Jennings closer to 1.6 receptions for the full game and thus projecting him closer to 0.4 receptions for the first quarter. That gives us about a 67% chance that he doesn’t catch a pass and this hits.

Jennings offers slightly less value than Watson since only one of his 25 catches this season went for three yards or fewer. It seems less likely for us to somehow survive a reception from Jennings. Also, Jennings has seen a much higher percentage of receptions in the first quarter compared to Watson.

This is also a prop that I’m expecting to hit around 70% of the time.

Pick: Jauan Jennings Under 3.5 Receiving Yards — 1st Quarter (-110)