The 8-4 Los Angeles Chargers travel to Kansas City to take on the 11-1 Chiefs in a huge AFC West primetime clash.
Like they have for much of the season, the Chiefs won in ugly fashion last week against the Las Vegas Raiders. Kansas City's offense is wildly inconsistent, and it's defense - although still stellar - isn't quite as good as it was last year.
Quarterback Patrick Mahomes has played better as of late, but both of his offensive tackles are struggling mightily, making it tough for him to get on the same page with his receivers. Defensively, the Chiefs are ranked eighth overall and have allowed the fewest amount of rushing yards to running backs in the NFL.
The Chargers have won five of their last six games and currently hold the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They play physically on both sides of the ball, and have the least of amount of turnovers in the league with just six.
Last week Los Angeles' defense intercepted Atlanta Falcons quarterback four times in route to a 17-13 victory. Quarterback Justin Herbert isn't throwing for a ton of yards like he has in seasons past, but he's playing very efficiently with 13 touchdown passes and just one interception.
Here are the best odds, bets, and predictions for this matchup.
*Odds from DraftKings and subject to change
Chiefs: -198
Chargers: +164
How the Chiefs have been winning has been under scrutiny, but it's hard to criticize winning 17 of your last 18 games (dating back to last year). They don't make it easy, but they know how to pull it out when it counts. When it comes to the Chargers, I think K.C. matches up well against them. L.A.'s offense revolves around their rushing attack having success, but the Chiefs simply do not allow teams to run on them.
Offensively, K.C. has a new starting left tackle in veteran D.J. Humphries. It badly needs Humphries to bring stability to that position and give Mahomes just an extra tick of time to scan the field. Running back Isiah Pacheco looked great in his return last week, and he and Kareem Hunt should make for a great tandem against a Chargers defense that is allowing 4.6 yards per carry.
Chiefs: -4 (-110)
Chargers: +4 (-110)
I'm taking the Chiefs to get the win, but there's no way I can expect them to cover based on how closely they play their opponents. Avoid the moneyline and bet the Chargers to cover the spread.
Over: -112
Under: -108
Both offenses are capable of putting up a lot of points, but the Chargers are usually pretty conservative and the Chiefs are too inconsistent. They combined for just 27 points in their Week 4 matchup, so I'll bet the under.
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