Coach Matt’s Game Plan: Buccaneers’ Offense vs Bills

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills this Sunday at 1pm. The team is looking to bounce-back after falling to the New England Patriots 28-23.

How will the Pewter Pirates attack the Bills’ defense? Coach Matt has the answers.

Game Plan Overview: 

Here, I dive into what an offensive coaching staff does in preparation for an upcoming opponent. This is, of course, not comprehensive, as the length of offensive game plans can vary significantly depending on the level of football. However, I’ve tried to include the most relevant parts for how I would approach the Buffalo Bills defense this weekend if I were creating a game plan. Buffalo’s defense wants you to stay in 11 personnel, that’s where they’re most comfortable (-0.114 EPA/play allowed). But when opponents use 12 (0.215) or 21 (0.203), the structure falls apart, linebackers get isolated, edges lose contain, and the box integrity weakens. The Bucs should try and dictate structure with 12 and even 21 personnel as they have been doing the past couple of weeks, stress rules with pull-action runs, and of course add in their usual layered route concepts that are the Cover 3 and QQH beaters.

Formation and Personnel Plan:

Here would be my personnel plan, it’s a little unrealistic as I know the Bucs will likely stick with 11 Personnel for around 65% of snaps, but they really should switch it up. 12 Personnel (Y + Y-off): ~40–45% of snaps.

The Bucs have seen a significant jump in their usage of 12 Personnel due to various reasons, mainly injuries. Make it the base look to dictate heavier fronts. Opens up play-action game (Bills’ Cover 3 weakness). Use condensed sets, shifts, and motion to create leverage.

21 Personnel (RB/RB or RB + FB/TE hybrid): 10–15%

Bucs have not been using 21 as much as I believe they should, they should use it as the short-yardage and changeup packages. Use split-flow or weak ISO looks to attack light boxes.

11 Personnel: 35–40%

When they’re in zone shells or sub packages, isolate matchups vs. nickel DBs.

Condensed formations with PA shots to intermediate zones. This is really where Buffalo’s defense struggles on tape, and it’s exploitable.

Formational Emphasis

The Buccaneers have been doing a good job of using the Y-off motions with Cade Otton and Payne Durham, and that should continue. I’d like to see more Y-Inserts as well. Y-off Motion / Insert / Arc: Changes run fits, displaces LB eyes, and disguises Counter / Pull Lead / PA Boot. And this next point could absolutely be the difference between a win and a loss for the Buccaneers. I have been saying for weeks and weeks that they need to use more under center play-action. Could this be the week we see it? Play-Action under Center (UC): Bills rank 30th in PA EPA allowed (0.35), their backers are biting hard on run keys.

Run Game Plan

This section I’ll keep it pretty simple. The Bills struggle against the run, that’s pretty well known this year. On film you can tell they can’t handle Counter and Pull Lead concepts very well, giving up an EPA/play of +0.367 and +0.494 respectively. So the answer for the Buccaneers is to stick with Counter and Pull Lead: Exploits slow LB flow, bad second-level fits. Bills over-pursue and spill poorly. I’d like to try something new here and appreciate all feedback on it. Below, I’ve provided my opening game script as I would potentially call it. As you know, the first 10-15 plays for offenses at many levels of football are usually scripted and specifically designed to establish the offense’s identity for that game. Here’s how I would do it.

Game Script: Opening 10-12 Plays

1. 12P Counter (Y-off motion)
2. 12P Play-Action Y-Over
3. 11P Duo Weak
4. 12P Boot Sail (to field side)
5. 11P Dagger (from condensed set)
6. 12P Trap
7. 12P Counter PA — Leak backside TE
8. 11P Play-Action from gun — Dig over middle
9. 12P Inside Zone — Tempo
10. 12P Boot Flood (boundary side)
11. 21P Inside Zone
12. 12P Counter again (same motion, different direction)