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Coach Matt’s Game Plan: Buccaneers’ Offense vs Cardinals

Originally posted on Bucs Report | By Coach Matt | Last updated Nov 28, 2025 12:17 PM ET

This week, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers face a defense with a very clear structural identity, and an equally clear structural flaw. The Arizona Cardinals are leaning heavily on soft zone shells, particularly Quarters (Cover 4) at a league-high clip, and the results have been disastrous.

Arizona is allowing +0.25 EPA/play in Quarters, and they’ve been unable to maintain run-fit integrity when offenses get into heavier personnel.

In Short:

They want to play deep
They want to keep the ball in front
They want to survive with light boxes

If they stay in soft shells, run it down their throat with 12 and 22 personnel. If they drop safeties into the fit, hit them over the top with Quarters beaters like Mills, Pin, and Post-Dig variations.

And once they start searching for answers? Under-center PA becomes the knockout punch.

This is a week to be physical, disciplined, and intentional. Arizona’s defense is built to bend and not built to survive a heavyweight fight. We will dictate the terms and the offense should get back on track. For the sake of this game plan, I’m gonna assume Baker Mayfield plays, but it should still be pretty similar if Teddy Bridgewater gets the nod.

Formation and Personnel Plan

Arizona’s defense structurally falls apart when opponents refuse to play into their soft nickel looks. Their light boxes and deep safeties don’t hold up when forced to defend downhill football.

12 Personnel (Y + Y-off): 40–45% of snaps

Just like in the Bills matchup, this should be the identity this week, but for different reasons. Arizona struggles vs. heavy personnel, allowing explosive EPA due to poor run fits and safety hesitation in Quarters.

Why 12P Works:

Forces their safeties into run/pass conflict
Creates natural leverage for our Quarters beaters (Post / Dig / Deep Over)
Opens up pull-action and insert-flow runs that displace LBs
Sets up under-center PA, where they are especially vulnerable
22 Personnel (2 RB, 2 TE): 10–15%

A matchup weapon. Not something the Bucs live in, but something they can punish Arizona with. This would be a big switch-up for Josh Grizzard and I doubt he does it, but he really should.

They are allowing +0.43 EPA vs. 22. That is not a typo.

Use 22P To:

Force base personnel
Create predictable gap fits
Set up Power, Counter, and Lead Iso downhill
11 Personnel: 35–40%

We still need it to keep rhythm and isolate matchups. When Arizona rotates to Cover 3 or shows single-high, this becomes the space to:

Attack Their Nickel
Run Dagger, Sail, and Slot Cross

But make no mistake: this is not the base this week.

Formational Emphasis
Y-off Motion / Insert / Arc

This Remains A Core Theme, Arizona’s Linebackers Struggle With:

Eye discipline
Fitting pullers
Passing off crossers
reacting to arc releases
Use Y-off to:

Change run strength pre-snap and force LB flow hesitation, set up Counter & Duo with better angles, and build mirrored PA looks (Boot, Flood, Sail).

Arizona Widens In Quarters To Protect The seams

Condensed Sets:

Create Natural Rubs
stress deep safeties
widen hook defenders
make it harder for them to pattern-match
Under-Center Play-Action

This Is The Game-Breaker

Arizona’s Quarters safeties are trigger-happy. They chase run keys. They jump Dig routes. UC PA is an EPA goldmine vs this structure. I’ve been saying it most of the season, but the Bucs are really much better when they use under center play action, and this is again a week to use it more.

Run Game Plan

Arizona’s Run Defense Struggles Come From Two Places:

Safeties slow to trigger in Quarters
DL playing wide alignments to protect against outside zone

That Means:

Zone runs (-0.17 EPA allowed) are NOT where we live this week.

The Run Identity:

Counter / Power / Duo Straight downhill, double teams, and pull-action stress.
Counter
LBs over-run.
Edges get washed.
Pull-action opens up PA shots later.
Power & Duo

This is Great vs their wide fronts. Perfect for double-teaming their interior. Forces safeties into fits they aren’t good at.

Inside Zone (sparingly)
Use it as a tempo or change-of-pace call.
Not a feature run
Pass Game Plan: Cracking Quarters
Arizona’s defensive backbone is Cover 4 (28.5%) and Cover 3 (26%)

Their Weakness Is Structural:
In Quarters, Safeties Must:

Fit the run
AND cap verticals
They aren’t doing either well

Concepts We Will Lean On:

Mills
Post + Dig Perfect vs Quarters safeties who drive too aggressively
Pin
Post + In
Creates horizontal stress on safeties and corners
Y-Over / Deep Cross
LBs cannot carry crossers in pattern-match variations
Sail
Cover 3 killer
High/low stress on their curl-flat defender.
Man Alert

If Baker Sees Single-High (Cover 1):

Check to Mesh
Check to Slant-Flat
Check to Stick-Nod
Man rate is only 15%, but EPA against it is brutal (+0.32)
Cover 0 Alert
Arizona is elite at Cover 0 (-0.94 EPA allowed)… but almost never call it (3.5%)

If Baker Sees Zero:

Quick Fade
Max-Protect Screen
TE Seam Hot
One mistake by them = free touchdown
Game Script: Opening 12 Plays

This script is designed to force the Quarters safeties into run/pass conflict from the first snap. We are going to hit them in the mouth, then hit them over the top.