College Football Playoff return trip? Boise State is the Group of 5’s top contender

Despite losing star running back Ashton Jeanty and several other impact players, Boise State is expected to remain firmly in the mix for a College Football Playoff berth.

The Broncos are +194 to make the 12-team playoff for the second consecutive season in the latest odds from FanDuel Sportsbook. The five highest-rated conference champions in the final CFP rankings receive automatic bids to the playoff. 

Among Group of 5 teams, Boise State has the shortest odds to reach the playoff. American Athletic Conference co-favorites Memphis and Tulane are next at +820, followed by Liberty (+1120), James Madison (+1300), Army (+1600), UNLV (+1600) and Navy (+1800). 

Boise State finished 12-2 overall last season, captured a second straight Mountain West Conference title and reached the CFP for the first time in program history.

The Broncos are -250 to miss the playoff next season. 

Earlier this month, Boise State checked in at No. 40 in the relaunch of ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI). The Broncos were the second-highest Group of 5 team in the rankings behind Tulane, which sat at No. 36. 

The Green Wave won the American Athletic Conference title in 2022 and fell in the AAC championship game each of the past two seasons.

FPI projects Boise State to win 9.6 games next season with 3.1 losses. FPI gives the Broncos a 1.9 percent chance to have an undefeated regular season and a 25.2 percent chance to make a return trip to the CFP. 

Tulane (24.3 percent chance to make the CFP) and fellow MWC contender UNLV (No. 42 FPI, 21.3 percent chance to make the CFP) are the only Group of 5 schools inside the top 60 of the FPI. 

Back in May, Boise State came in at No. 33 in ESPN’s SP+ projections. The ESPN SP+ is based on returning production, recent recruiting and recent history.

The Broncos were one of three Group of 5 teams included in the top 50 of the SP+, well above No. 48 Tulane and No. 49 James Madison. 

Boise State will open the 2025 season on Aug. 28 at South Florida and return home the following week to take on Eastern Washington (Sept. 5). The Broncos also have non-conference games against Appalachian State (Sept. 27 at Albertsons Stadium) and Notre Dame (Oct. 4 at Notre Dame Stadium).

The Broncos’ MWC home games are against New Mexico (Oct. 11), UNLV (Oct. 18), Fresno State (Nov. 1) and Colorado State (Nov. 22) with road trips to Air Force (Sept. 20), Nevada (Oct. 24), San Diego State (Nov. 15) and Utah State (Nov. 28). 

Odds are courtesy of FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.