Colts vs. Cardinals Best Bets: Taylor and Indy Keep Rolling

We’ve seen what Indianapolis does to sub-.500 teams — they don’t just win, they bury them. The Colts have outscored those teams by 80 combined points in just three games — a wild 27-point average margin that shows how they handle business.

And this Arizona team is plummeting. They just lost to an 0–4 Titans team last week — the same Titans squad Indianapolis beat by three touchdowns.

Add that to the Colts’ track record against losing teams, and that brings us to our first play of the week — Colts -6.5 (-133).

We’ve seen this script before — bad rush defense, meet Jonathan Taylor.

The Cardinals rank 25th against the run and 25th in tackling, making this another strong matchup for the Colts’ feature back.

With that matchup advantage in mind, our next play focuses on Taylor’s explosiveness — Taylor's longest rush over 16.5 (-118).

Taylor has recorded a run of 16+ yards in seven of his last ten games and is averaging a long rush of 31.9 yards over that span. Against a defense ranked 25th in tackling, that trend is hard to ignore.

We’re sticking with the Colts’ veteran back for our next play — Taylor anytime TD (-200).

It’s not a flashy line, but there’s a reason for it: Taylor’s found the end zone 14 times in his last ten games.

With 3+ touchdowns in two of his last three contests, he’s firmly established himself as one of the most reliable scorers in football.

With the Colts’ defensive shutdown of the Raiders last week, this unit is finding its stride.

Indianapolis has started to look like a complete team on both sides of the ball — and this defense is now set to prey on an Arizona offense that ranks 26th overall.

That defensive momentum should force Kyler Murray to create outside of structure, which makes his rushing prop too good to ignore — Kyler Murray Over 29.5 Rush Yards (-137). This is, of course, if he plays on Sunday.

Murray has cleared that line in four of his last five games, averaging 36.25 rushing yards over his last eight.

The seventh-year QB posted 74 rushing yards against the Colts the last time these teams met in 2021. With Arizona’s offense ranking 26th overall, Murray may need to rely on his legs to keep drives alive.

Murray might get his on the ground, but that passing game still looks questionable. Michael Wilson Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-110) is a trend that keeps cashing.

Wilson has gone under that number in six straight, averaging just 10.4 yards per game this season. Even against a thin Colts secondary, he simply hasn’t been involved enough to threaten this line.

Indianapolis enters Week 6 with momentum, discipline, and a chance to keep proving they belong among the AFC’s best. This is a team that’s handled business against lesser opponents all year, and Arizona fits that same mold.

The Colts’ balanced formula — a dominant ground game, opportunistic defense, and steady quarterback play — has carried bettors to a profitable start to the season.

There’s no reason to change what’s working. Identify trends, find value, and ride the hot hand. Good luck, and bet responsibly. 

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