Cotton Softens Cotton: Why Chiefs Should Guard Against Overconfidence

Lack of balance on offense

An even bigger problem is that Chiefs have run the ball on just 39 percent of their offensive snaps, and that includes the 18 carries from quarterback Patrick Mahomes.

“It'll be important to be able to go out there and be able to run the football,” the quarterback said Wednesday. “And then be able to pass off of it will be important to us. Stay balanced and go up against a team that's gonna be as hungry as we are. So, it'll be a great football game this weekend.”

The Ravens rank 30th in the NFL, allowing 149.0 rushing yards per game. Kansas City, meanwhile, ranks 17th with 108.0 rushing yards per game. And, again, those Chiefs yards include significant production (125, including two touchdowns) from Mahomes.

Opportunity awaits?

Talk all week outside Chiefs headquarters has centered on this week as a prime opportunity for Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt to break out of their funk – especially against a Ravens unit that surrendered 224 ground yards in a 38-30 loss to the Lions on Monday night. On top of that, Pro Bowl defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike landed on injured reserve Saturday with a neck injury.

But inside Chiefs headquarters, the team is focused on continuing the momentum it started last week – the first time someone other than Mahomes led the club in rushing.

“I just feel like we all just got to do our job,” Hunt said Friday. “Takes all of us to get the run game going, and that's what we got to do.”

One other reason the Chiefs should guard against overconfidence: The Ravens began last season largely in similar fashion from a defensive standpoint. According to ESPN research, Baltimore through three games in 2024 ranked last among 32 teams in passing yards per game, 24th and total yards allowed per play.

Baltimore knows the importance of this game, how a 1-3 record would severely limit the Ravens’ chances of returning to the playoffs. Could defensive coordinator Zachary Orr unleash a surprise against the Chiefs on Sunday?

“Zach Orr made that brilliant mid-season adjustment last year to fix the pass defense,” Kimes recalled. “I want to see if he has a card to play in the run defense. Madubuike being out hurts them a lot structurally.

“Do they maybe play a safety a little bit closer to the box? Do they switch it up with the linebackers that they're starting? It feels like something has to change, and it feels incumbent upon the defensive coordinator to figure this out.”

Ironically, Orr’s younger brother, Chris, is Kansas City’s defensive quality control coach. Their father is former Washington Redskins tight end Terry Orr, a two-time Super Bowl champion.