
The Dallas Cowboys are still alive, but there is no sugarcoating where things stand. With three weeks left in the regular season, Dallas is hanging on to the edge of the NFC playoff race, needing help and near perfection to keep its season going past January.
Heading into Week 15, the Cowboys sat at 6-6-1, a record that tells the story of a year filled with missed chances and tight finishes. According to playoff projections, Dallas has just a 7% chance to make the postseason before the game kicks off. That number alone shows how narrow the path has become.
And now, everything starts with Sunday night.
In the NFC, the picture is crowded. Philly still leads the divisional race, which means Dallas is chasing a wild-card spot. That is where things get tricky.
The Cowboys are currently outside the top seven, sitting behind several teams with cleaner records and stronger tiebreakers. Teams like Seattle, San Francisco, Chicago, and Green Bay control their own destiny. Dallas does not.
Even within the NFC East, Dallas is chasing the Eagles, who hold a 2 game lead following their win over the Raiders. The Cowboys are done playing Philadelphia. That makes a very slim division title hopes and forces the Cowboys to focus entirely on the wild card race.
At 6-6-1, the tie looms large. It keeps Dallas from falling completely out of contention, but it also complicates tiebreaker scenarios if multiple teams finish with similar records.
Dallas plays Minnesota on Sunday Night Football, and the stakes could not be higher. This is not just another game. It is the season.
A win keeps Dallas alive and nudges those playoff odds upward, even if only slightly. A loss would all but end serious postseason hopes. With the NFC field tightening, there simply are not enough games left to take another defeat.
Minnesota enters the game with its own issues, but the Cowboys cannot afford to worry about style points or long-term narratives. This is a must-win situation, plain and simple.
If Dallas wins, they still need help, but at least the door stays cracked open.
Even if Dallas beats Minnesota, the road does not suddenly get easy. The Cowboys would likely need to win out, or at worst, finish with one loss, and hope several teams ahead of them stumble.
That includes losses by teams like the Lions, Panthers, or Bears, depending on how the standings shake out week to week. Tiebreakers will matter, especially conference record and head-to-head results, areas where Dallas has not consistently helped itself this season.
This is the uncomfortable part of the conversation for Cowboys fans. Dallas no longer controls its own fate. Every Sunday becomes a scoreboard-watching exercise.
Dallas has shown flashes of being a playoff team. There have been games where the offense clicked, such as the 31-28 win over the Chiefs. But those moments were often followed by poor performances, such as allowing 44 in a loss to Detroit last week.
The tie on the schedule remains a defining moment. It kept Dallas from a losing record, but it also prevented them from separating themselves in a tight wild-card race. In a year where margins are thin across the NFC, every half-win matters.
A 7% playoff chance is not zero. It means there is still something to play for. But it also means the Cowboys are running out of room for mistakes.
Sunday night against Minnesota is the first step. Lose, and the conversation shifts fully to draft position and offseason questions. Win, and Dallas earns at least another week of meaningful football.
For a franchise that measures seasons by postseason success, just being alive in mid-December is not the standard. But for now, survival is the goal.
The Cowboys still have a pulse. What happens next will decide whether it turns into a playoff push or another long offseason.
The Cowboys have a home game against the Chargers in Week 16, and then back-to-back road trips to Washington and the New York Giants to finish the regular season. The Commanders and Giants are out of playoff contention, but divisional foes never go down easy.
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