Dallas Cowboys vs. Philadelphia Eagles Thursday Night Pick 

The Cowboys will take the field tonight in the season opener facing the defending Super Bowl champs as underdogs of more than a TD, with the line currently hovering around -8 to -8.5. When one of the most public teams in the league (Dallas) is seeing heavy action piling in on the other side, you’ve got our attention and we’ll go looking for value on the other side. 

Despite the storylines and daily eye-rolling statements from Jerry, there’s actually plenty to like about Dallas this year.

It was obviously a tumultuous 2024 season and just as volatile off-season, marked by injuries and roster upheaval, including THE trade of the summer, with Micah Parsons heading north to Green Bay. No it wasn’t as earthshaking as the Luka trade in the Dallas-area, but it has rattled the fan base and played a role in amplifying the narrative that the team is floundering, and not committed to winning football games, but rather focused on pumping franchise value and winning the PR game. It’s messy in Dallas right now. A lot of noise, and not the kind you want. Troy Aikman weighed in with a few shots as well. 

Offensively, the Cowboys are kind of loaded. Dak Prescott, just two years removed from an MVP runner-up campaign, heads a skilled receiver group bolstered by the arrival of George Pickens, who brings explosive playmaking potential. Sure with his usual immature approach, George might blow up the receiver room, and completely turn Prescott and teammates against him at some point, but he’ll need more time for that. This week it sounds like all is good. Pickens is a big addition. Everything should be better for CeeDee Lamb, a true star, as Pickens attracts some attention away from CeeDee. Prescott has the arsenal to challenge even elite defenses. 

Philly’s defense is very good, but not without vulnerabilities, particularly in the secondary. The losses of Darius Slay and C.J. Gardner-Johnson are notable. The Eagles excelled in limiting passing yards last season, but the new look secondary could open the door for this Cowboy offense to exploit coverages. Dallas has revamped their backfield, but it will be the passing game they lean on.

When the Eagles have the ball, we’ll get to see what Matt Eberflus, Dallas’s new defensive coordinator, has been working on. Ebeflus’ run as the head coach in Chicago wasn’t impressive, but his lane is as a defensive strategist, with a reputation of being able to maximize defensive resources. They should be more balanced this season, with a stronger interior. 

Kellen Moore is gone, making this yet another season Jalen Hurts will work with a new offensive coordinator. He started slow last season in this situation, but the adjustment won’t be as significant, as they stayed in-house for this hire, so the system will be familiar. Saquon is a beast and the way Philly approaches third and fourth down, it produces a lot of success and havoc for an opposing D. The Eagles’ O will stress the Cowboy D no question, but we like them to do enough to support their offense. 

We like the value on a Cowboy team that is better than their off-season narrative, and has a defense that we feel will punch above their weight. 

Winner’s Edge Pick: We’re betting the Cowboys +8.5