Defense's Best Test: 3 Bold Predictions For Jaguars vs. 49ers

It remains to be seen when, and even if, the Jaguars are set to hand the keys to the ground game pver to rookie running back Bahyshul Tuten. Tuten is just three games into his career and so far is being outplayed by veteran running back Travis Etienne in terms of snap % (16% to 60%) and carries (17 to 46). With that said, the small sample size of Tuten has been the more efficient approach for the Jaguars' offense, and I predict that we see Tuten get his largest workload yet this week.

According to NextGen Stats, "Travis Etienne’s offensive line has helped him gain 83 rushing yards before contact, the 2nd-most of any running back. Despite this, Etienne has managed the 8th-lowest rushing success rate (34.8%) of any running back with at least 15 carries. Bhayshul Tuten, on the other hand, has generated a 58.8% success rate, 3rd-highest among that same group. Tuten’s missed tackle forced rate of 35.3% is 6th-highest among that group and almost double that of Etienne (21.7%)."

Defense Gets Hit by Long Ball

The Jaguars' defense is facing its biggest test of the season thus far. It feels more likely than not that Brock Purdy will play, and even a banged-up Purdy with an also banged-up supporting cast is more of a threat than Bryce Young, Jake Browning, and the current rendition of the Houston Texans offense. I think this week the Jaguars fall victim to some deep shots, with at least two going to Ricky Pearsall.

According to NextGenStats, "49ers receiver Ricky Pearsall leads the NFL with 264 receiving yards on downfield targets (10+ air yards). His +93 receiving yards over expected on those targets are +24 more than any other player. Jaguars cornerback Tyson Campbell has allowed the 6th-most receiving yards (138) of any player on downfield throws this season and is one of nine cornerbacks who has allowed multiple downfield touchdowns. On the other side, Jarrian Jones has allowed 7 completions on 11 attempts for 85 yards overall, including a touchdown on a downfield throw."

CMC is Contained

While the Jaguars could be suspect this week when it comes to the pass, I think they contain 49ers star running back Christian McCaffrey and have a strong showing against the 49ers' rushing game as a whole. I am going to predict 3.5 yards or fewer per rush and just 50 yards rushing for McCaffrey, who curently ranks No. 34 out of 40 qualified running backs in EPA/Rush, No. 31 in yards after contact per carry, and No. 31 in yards before contact per carry.

I think the Jaguars' defense will be up to the task of stopping Shanahan's rushing attack and his best skill player. The question is whether this will be enough.