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Action Network/Getty Images. Pictured: Bo Nix (left) and Joe Burrow.
The Denver Broncos (9-6) and Cincinnati Bengals (7-8) will face off NFL Week 17. Kickoff is set for 4:30 p.m. EST from Paycor Stadium in Cincinnati, Ohio. The game will be broadcast live on NFL Network.
The Bengals are favored by 3.5 points at most sportsbooks with the game total set at 50 points scored (-110o / -110u). The Bengals are -180 favorites to win outright, while the Broncos are +150 to pull off the upset.
Joe Burrow continues to put up gaudy numbers, becoming the first quarterback to throw for at least 250 yards and 3 TDs in 7 straight games after the Bengals dominated the Browns in a 24-6 win a week ago. Patrick Surtain II vs. Ja’Marr Chase will certainly take center stage when the Broncos pay a visit to Cincinnati on Saturday. But Bo Nix, Courtland Sutton, and Co. have averaged 33.2 PPG over their last 5 games and could have a field day against a porous Bengals defense.
Let’s get into my Bengals vs Broncos predictions and NFL picks.
Broncos vs. Bengals Odds, Pick, Prediction
4:30 p.m. EST
NFL Network
- Broncos vs. Bengals spread: Bengals -3 (-120)
- Broncos vs. Bengals over/under: 50 points scored
- Broncos vs. Bengals moneyline: Bengals -180, Broncos +150
- Broncos vs. Bengals best bet: Broncos +3.5
My Broncos vs. Bengals best bet is on Denver, with the best odds currently available at BetMGM. For all of your NFL bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NFL odds page.
Spread
Simply put, I see the Broncos as a better team on paper than the Bengals. So, I’ll take the 3.5 points with Denver.
Moneyline
While I’m backing the Broncos against the spread, I do not have a play on the moneyline.
Over/Under
I also do not see value on the total in this matchup.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5
Broncos vs. Bengals NFL Week 17 Preview
On paper, the Broncos are a better team. They’re ninth in DVOA compared to Cincinnati’s 17th, and while both teams have been trending upward, Denver is sixth in weighted DVOA and Cincinnati is 13th. That’s still a noteworthy gap no matter how you slice it.
We know Joe Burrow is going to put up points. His stats this season are very impressive and he’d be in the MVP race if the Bengals could win more of the close games they found themselves in.
The key will be to limit the Bengals from putting up 40+ points. The Browns typically have a lot of success against Burrow, and they did pretty well against him last week by playing a lot of man coverage.
The Broncos match up well by playing the most man coverage in the NFL. Burrow is averaging 8.4 yards per attempt against zone and 6.8 against man, and he’s at 0.29 EPA per dropback against zone and 0.09 against man. That’s a pretty significant dropoff.
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This is also a good matchup for Bo Nix, who has led Denver to strong performances against bottom-half pass defenses this season. Nix has faced seven such teams this season and is 7-0 straight-up and against the spread with the Broncos averaging 29 points per game. In those games, Nix has 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and three rushing touchdowns. He’s just 3-4-1 against the spread and is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game against above-average pass defenses.
Finally, this is a spot where I’m looking to back Sean Payton, whose teams cover the spread more than 60% of the time as underdogs in his coaching career.
I would still play this at Broncos +3, but I obviously would prefer the one-half point at 3.5.
My Pick: Broncos +3.5
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