Detroit Lions ceiling and floor for 2023

Entering the third season of head coach Dan Campbell's era, expectations are high for the Lions following improvements in 2022 and offseason additions to the roster. 

Whether the Lions will take another step forward after a 9-8 finish last season is subject for debate. Here's our best guess at the best- and worst-case scenarios for the Lions in 2023. 

Ceiling: 10-7

Detroit's offense cooked last season, but the defense flopped, likely costing the Lions a chance at a playoff berth. Detroit gave up an NFL-worst 392 yards per game and had the third-worst points-per-game average (25.1) in 2022. However, Detroit's defense has the opportunity to improve with free-agent additions at cornerback (Cam Sutton) and safety (Chauncey Gardner-Johnson), along with 2023 rookie newcomers Jack Campbell at linebacker and Brian Branch at safety.

A 1-6 start last season ultimately doomed any postseason hopes for the Lions. So, getting out to a hot start will be crucial.

Luckily for the Lions, the beginning of their schedule is favorable following their opener on the road against the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs. The Lions have several winnable games leading up to their Week 9 bye, including home games against the Seattle Seahawks (Week 2), Atlanta Falcons (Week 3), Carolina Panthers (Week 5) and Las Vegas Raiders (Week 8) and road tilts with the Green Bay Packers (Week 4) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Week 6). (Complete schedule analysis here.)

Floor: 8-9

The offense ranked fourth in the NFL in yards per game (380) last season and boasted the third-best passing game in the NFC. But the unit will look different with the additions of RB David Montgomery and WR Marvin Jones Jr., who may or may not be an upgrade over D'Andre Swift and D.J. Chark. Meanwhile, breakout candidate Jameson Williams — the former star Alabama WR — will miss the season's first six games serving a suspension, which could impact the offense early on. 

Detroit might also have trouble duplicating the late-season success they enjoyed in 2022. Four of the Lions last eight games come against postseason teams from last season, including the Los Angeles Chargers (Week 10) and Dallas Cowboys (Week 17), who defeated Detroit 24-6 in a lopsided game in  Week 7 in 2022. 

The Lions also play the defending NFC North champion Minnesota Vikings in Weeks 16 and 18. As the Lions learned last season, a slow start might be the difference between suiting up for the postseason or watching it from home. With some tests down the stretch, this point is especially true for 2023.