Diving Into Instant Draft Grades Then And Now

So the instant grades for the 2024 NFL draft have been tabulated, and it looks like the Miami Dolphins earned somewhere in the neighborhood of a 2.75 GPA based on a consensus of national draft analysts.

But how have those instant grades panned out before, how accurately have they assessed the quality of previous Dolphins draft classes?

To try to answer those questions, we took a deep dive into the annual post-draft instant grades, using data compiled by German fan René Bugner (@RNBWCV).

The 2024 Dolphins draft class — consisting of Chop Robinson, Patrick Paul, Jaylen Wright, Mohamed Kamara, Malik Washington, Patrick McMorris and Tahj Washington — ranked 22nd in the NFL based on Bugner's compilation of grades from 28 national draft analysts.

Dating back to 2017, this ranking is the Dolphins' lowest for immediate grades for a draft class outside of the 2022 and 2023 drafts when Miami had only four selections each time.

Based on those composite immediate grades, no one should be surprised that the 2021 draft was the most well-received for the Dolphins after they took Jaylen Waddle, Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland with their first three picks.

That draft class earned a 3.64 GPA for instant grades, ranking it fifth in the entire NFL.

While this has become a top-heavy Dolphins draft because Liam Eichenberg hasn't quite panned out yet, and Hunter Long, Larnel Coleman and Gerrid Doaks no longer are on the roster, it's tough to complain about landing three high-end starters.

Three years after the fact, the draft class would get a B+.

The Dolphins' draft classes were ranked in instant grades in the middle of pack four times over the past eight years — every year from 2017 to 2020.

But what's really going to come as a surprise (perhaps) is that the Dolphins draft class that got the second-best immediate review based on those grades was the 2017 class that produced Charles Harris, Raekwon McMillan, Cordrea Tankersley, Isaac Asiata, Davon Godchaux, Vincent Taylor and Isaiah Ford.

That class got a 3.13 GPA right after the draft, and seven years after the fact it's in the running for worst Dolphins draft class ever — because, while Godchaux was a fifth-round steal, the Dolphins practically nothing out of their top three picks.

A 3.13 GPA is somewhere between a B (3.0) and a B-minus (3.3), and that 2017 draft class probably wouldn't deserve much better than a D in retrospect.

The 2018 draft was highlighted by the first-round selection of DB Minkah Fitzpatrick, followed by Mike Gesicki and Jerome Baker in Rounds 2 and 3.

The instant grades for that draft gave the Dolphins a 2.92 GPA (almost a B), and we're almost inclined to move that up to a B+.

Fitzpatrick is an All-Pro safety and him winding up in Pittsburgh because of a clash with former coach Brian Flores doesn't change the fact it was a great pick. And then in addition to Gesicki and Baker, the draft also brought Durham Smythe, who's been a starting tight end as a fourth-round pick, and seventh-round pick Jason Sanders, who was the best kicker in the NFL in 2020 and has been good more often than not for Miami.

The instant grade for the 2019 draft — which brought Christian Wilkins, Michael Deiter, Andrew Van Ginkel, Isaiah Prince, Chandler Cox and Myles Gaskin — averaged out to the same 2.92 that the 2018 haul got, but in retrospect this wasn't quite as good a group.

Wilkins and Van Ginkel certainly were big hits in the first and fifth rounds, and Gaskin was a two-time leading rusher for the team as a seventh-round selection, but missing on Deiter, who couldn't get back into the starting lineup after getting a shot as a rookie, didn't help the Dolphins' seemingly neverending quest to find answers on the offensive line.

Because of Wilkins, though, it would be difficult to give this draft much worse than a B-.

The 2020 draft, which was perhaps the most significant step in the Dolphins' massive rebuilding project, earned a cumulative 3.06 GPA for instant grades after the selections of Tua Tagovailoa, Austin Jackson and Noah Igbinoghene in the first round, and those of Robert Hunt and Raekwon Davis in the second round.

This is a very difficult draft to evaluate because the Dolphins had so much draft capital, both quantity and quality, with those five picks in the first two rounds and 11 overall.

This could have been a transformative draft, but four years later it can't be viewed as a home run but also can't be viewed as a failure because there's been good and bad.

And that starts with the very first pick, the always-polarizing Tua, whose selection even now can be debated.

On the one hand, Tua has been very good statistically the past two seasons after a shaky start, he's led the league in significant passing categories and he was a Pro Bowl starter.

On the other hand, Tua has failed to deliver against playoff opponents — and it wasn't just last season — and his two highly successful seasons fizzled, first because of his concussion issues and then because of performance. And while the finger absolutely shouldn't be pointed at Tua for what happened to the offense down the stretch last season, the reality is he didn't do his part to help the Dolphins rise above their challenges. Put another way, Tua wasn't the problem, but he was more part of the problem than part of the solution.

And that Pro Bowl invitation that Tua got last year is the only one for any of those 2020 draft picks, which is somewhat disappointing again considering the team had five picks in the first two rounds.

Hunt was a good to very good starter for four years, but Jackson didn't become a quality starter until his fourth season, Davis didn't make much of an impact, and Igbinoghene was a bust.

That's quite frankly not a great return for five premium picks.

And of the bottom five picks, long-snapper Blake Ferguson is the only one still around and he's already on his third jersey number (last part is a joke).

So it's difficult to give this draft a great grade four years later, though it's going to look much better if Tua is able to take that next step to bona fide elite quarterback.

Fro now, though, it can't get anything better than a C.