Do stats show 49ers' Brock Purdy is underrated?

Discussions about whether or not San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was merely a successful "game manager" over his first three NFL seasons existed long before he received a five-year, $265M contract extension that included $181M in guarantees and a no-trade clause.  

For an article published on Friday, ESPN NFL analyst Aaron Schatz suggested certain stats show Purdy may actually be the most underrated QB1 in the league today. 

"I have a model for (yards-after-catch) over expectation based on the air yards and location of each pass: The 49ers led the NFL in this metric for six straight years from 2018 through 2023, but they dropped to sixth last season. Purdy's overall numbers were strong anyway," Schatz wrote. "... Purdy was seventh in the NFL with a 67.9 QBR for the 2024 season. Kevin Cole's adjusted quarterback efficiency, which attempts to adjust for everything from yards after the catch to dropped passes, had Purdy seventh in value per play (ninth in total value). And Purdy was fourth in Ben Baldwin's adjusted EPA per play (which also has adjustments for pass protection)."

The final pick of the 2022 NFL Draft, Purdy won his first seven starts (playoffs included) before he suffered a torn ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow during the 2023 NFC Championship Game. He recovered from that setback in time to start in Week 1 of the subsequent season, and he then became a regular-season Most Valuable Player Award finalist before he nearly guided the 49ers to a Super Bowl LVIII victory. 

Despite those accomplishments, some of Purdy's critics enjoyed victory laps after he was unable to help the 2024 Niners overcome an injury crisis as the club fell from 5-4 to 6-11. The 49ers could've kept him in the final year of his inexpensive rookie contract and then retained his rights for 2026 via the franchise tag, if necessary, but they instead made him one of the league's highest-paid players ahead of training camp. 

Per Jordan Elliott of NBC Sports Bay Area, Purdy said during a Thursday appearance on San Francisco sports radio station 95.7 The Game that he wants to "get back to those kind of fundamentals" that made him a breakout star as a rookie. One can only guess what that version of Purdy would've accomplished had he stayed healthy through the conference title game versus the Philadelphia Eagles.