Does Buffalo Bills' defense have a third-down problem?

Buffalo has struggled to get off the field in recent seasons, particularly a season ago when the Bills’ defense allowed its opponents to convert on 44.54 percent of third-down chances, which was the third-worst mark in the NFL.

To begin the 2025 campaign, Buffalo picked up right where it left off when it allowed the Baltimore Ravens to move the chains on 6 of 11 third-down chances in Week 1. The Bills’ defense followed that up with a rebound effort against an inferior Jets team, but took a significant step back in that department against Miami on Thursday night.

“Too many third-down conversions where (Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa) was extending the play more than I would have liked to have seen,” said Bills Head Coach Sean McDermott postgame, via the Bills’ live stream. “So we have to look at that a little bit more.”

Buffalo’s struggles on third down began immediately on the first drive of the game against the Dolphins. Miami converted three times on third down during what amounted to a 10-play touchdown drive, which was capped by a two-yard touchdown run from rookie running back Ollie Gordon on third-and-goal.

Then, after forcing two straight Dolphins’ three-and-outs, the Bills gave up another lengthy scoring drive, this time composed of 16 plays, including five third-down conversions. Miami moved the sticks on a third-and-12, a third-and-10 and a third-and-7 during the possession, which ended with a three-yard touchdown pass from Tagovailoa to wide receiver Jaylen Waddle, which tied the game at 14 apiece entering the intermission.

“I thought at halftime we were playing well,” said McDermott. “It was the third downs before the half and the third downs after the half. I thought first and second downs, by and large, was pretty good.”

The Bills got back on track to begin the second half, scoring a touchdown of their own before forcing a couple of Miami three-and-outs. But once again, to start the fourth quarter, the Dolphins proved nearly unstoppable as they marched down the field in nine plays to tie the game once again with 12 minutes and 18 seconds left in the ball game. During its latest scoring drive, Miami converted a third-and-14 along with a fourth-and-4 to keep the possession alive.

On the Dolphins’ final possession, they converted third-and-8 and third-and-4 before linebacker Terrel Bernard took matters into his own hands with a game-changing interception that helped seal the win. If it weren’t for another clutch takeaway by this Buffalo defense, who knows what would have happened to end Miami’s last drive?

One of the major culprits when it came to Miami's dismantling of Buffalo on third down was Jaylen Waddle. The Dolphins wide receiver finished the game with just five receptions for 39 yards, but three of his receptions went conerted third or fourth downs and another went for a three-yard touchdown. The Bills have now allowed a third-down conversion rate of 43.2 percent this season, which is nearly on par with their abysmal mark from a season ago.

“Just our fundamentals,” said Bernard as to what needs to improve as far as the Bills’ third-down defense. “There’s a couple times where we have him, we miss a tackle here, he gets out of the pocket, creates a play. That’s what it comes back down to.”

Bernard added, “That was really the emphasis at halftime. We felt like we were winning first and second down and getting them to third and long, but we just weren’t detailed and finishing those drives.”

Moving forward, it’s an area the Bills must fix if they hope to compete with some of the more challenging teams on their schedule.

Buffalo’s slate won’t get any more difficult in the near future, with the lowly New Orleans Saints coming to town in Week 4 before the Bills (3-0) take on the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons, leading into the Bills’ Week 7 bye week.

Frankly, even down the stretch, there aren’t many matchups that make you think twice. However, with games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Philadelphia Eagles, the Bills cannot allow opponents to continue to dominate on third down, or eventually, the chickens will come home to roost.

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