Does history suggest Buccaneers have already made decision about possible Baker Mayfield extension?

Earlier this spring, Tampa Bay Buccaneers co-owner Joel Glazer suggested that it wouldn't "hurt at all to write that check" to lock quarterback Baker Mayfield down via a lucrative multiyear contract extension. 

However, Mayfield remains in the final year of the three-year deal he signed to stay with the Buccaneers in March 2024. For a piece published on Tuesday, Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk explained that history shows the Glazer family may not be in a rush to give Mayfield the type of extension he'd sign this offseason. 

Why Baker Mayfield may not get "market-level contract" from Buccaneers this offseason  

"They paid Tom Brady," Florio said about the Buccaneers. "But not top-of-market money. When he arrived in 2020, the Bucs gave him $25M per year. The market, at the time, was led by Patrick Mahomes, at $45M annually. ...On 'PFT Live,' Chris Simms and I went through the list of Tampa Bay quarterbacks since the franchise was founded in 1976. (Simms was one of them.) None has ever gotten a top-dollar, market-level contract."

The idea that the Buccaneers could play hardball with Mayfield regarding negotiations would have been downright silly when the club entered its 2025 bye at 6-2 this past fall. However, Tampa Bay ultimately missed the playoffs and finished the season with a record of 8-9. Additionally, Mayfield dealt with a significant injury to his non-throwing shoulder for the second time since the 2021 campaign. 

Buccaneers could save money and keep Baker Mayfield this way

Back in March, The Athletic's Jeff Howe noted that Mayfield could become "the first QB to exceed $50M in free agency" if he plays well later this year and is allowed to test the open market. It sounds like Florio thinks the Buccaneers are prepared for such a scenario. 

"The fallback for the Buccaneers is the franchise tag," Florio continued. "With a cap number of $39.975M in 2026, it would cost $47.97M to keep Mayfield off the open market."

Going down such a route could prove to be a good business decision for the Buccaneers if Mayfield flops while on the franchise tag in 2027. Then again, he may give Tampa Bay somewhat of a hometown discount this offseason to ensure that he stays with the club beyond the 2026 campaign.