Does key stat show Jets are undervaluing Will McDonald?

Three years after the New York Jets selected him in the first round of the 2023 NFL draft, Will McDonald’s future is up in the air.

The Jets have picked up McDonald’s fifth-year option for the 2027 season, but he has yet to sign a contract extension. Not only that, but it appears as if discussions have not even begun.

McDonald is set to enter a much more crowded edge-rushing room than the one he spearheaded in 2025. Second-overall pick David Bailey, $34.5 million man Joseph Ossai, and $10 million man Kingsley Enagbare have come to town, providing McDonald with plenty of competition for snaps.

With the new additions, McDonald could be looking at a significant reduction in snaps after participating in 66% of the Jets’ defensive plays across his 15 appearances last year. Ossai and Enagbare offer higher floors as run defenders, while Bailey has the higher overall ceiling.

But would the Jets be making a mistake to downgrade McDonald in their EDGE rotation?

According to one particular metric, they would.

Per the analytics website RayCarp, the Jets defense allowed 0.179 fewer EPA (Expected Points Added) per play with McDonald on the field versus off in 2025.

That was the third-largest margin in the NFL among defensive linemen with at least 500 snaps, including the largest among edge rushers:

1. DT Moro Ojomo, Eagles (-0.195)
2. DT Leonard Williams, Seahawks (-0.190)
3. EDGE Will McDonald, Jets (-0.179)
4. EDGE Travon Walker, Jaguars (-0.172)
5. DT Braden Fiske, Rams (-0.149)

Essentially, the Jets’ overall defensive efficiency was substantially better with McDonald on the field. That doesn’t mean they were “good” with McDonald on the field—they still allowed +0.072 EPA per play, which is below-average—but they declined to utterly horrendous when he was on the sidelines (+0.251).

What does this say about McDonald’ impact?

Well, before we take things too far, context is crucial. There’s a reason the Jets added Bailey, Ossai, and Enagbare: Their edge unit was putrid outside of McDonald last season. Beyond McDonald, the Jets’ edge rushers produced 4.0 sacks.

With that in mind, it makes sense that the Jets’ defensive efficiency dropped off so drastically when McDonald came off the field. The guys replacing him were the likes of Micheal Clemons and Braiden McGregor.

Nonetheless, a similar situation applies to almost every starting edge rusher in the league. Save for the select few teams with absurdly deep defensive lines, any starting edge rusher would be replaced by a backup-level player when he comes off the field—perhaps the replacement wouldn’t be quite as weak as Clemons or McGregor, but there would still be a drop-off.

So, even if McDonald’s ranking in this metric is undoubtedly influenced by the Jets’ poor depth to some degree, the fact that he ranked all the way up at No. 1 among edge rushers has to say something about his impact—particularly against the pass.

McDonald’s run defense has been a concern in his game since he was drafted, and that did not change in 2025. It’s the main reason why his role might shrink in 2026.

Despite his run-game shortcomings, the Jets still performed significantly better when McDonald was out there, and that’s with him handling a three-down role for the most part. The Jets took him off the field in some run situations, but it’s not as if he was a pass-rush specialist; 38% of his snaps came on run plays.

Even with McDonald being considered a liability on 38% of his plays, the Jets looked like a far better defensive unit when he was on the field. Perhaps it speaks to how much his pass-rush impact outweighs his shortcomings against the run.

McDonald dropped from 10.5 sacks in 2024 to 8.0 sacks in 2025, but on film, he looked just as dynamic at getting after the quarterback. His statistics dropped primarily because of the Jets’ enormous decline in pass coverage, which allowed opponents to get the ball out much faster.