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Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa Heading Into Make or Break Season

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Andy Hageman | Last updated Jul 15, 2025 3:30 PM ET

The Miami Dolphins’ 2024 season was a tale of two teams: electric with Tua Tagovailoa under center, lifeless without him. Can their high-octane offense, led by a fragile quarterback, rebound in 2025?

Fantasy managers and sports bettors alike are left pondering if Miami’s stars can shine or if injuries will dim their prospects again.

In 2024, Miami’s offense ranked 22nd in points per game (20.3) and 18th in total yards (325.4). When Tagovailoa played, the Dolphins hummed, with Tua posting a league-best 72.9% completion rate and ranking seventh in EPA per play.

But Tua's concussion in Week 2 sidelined him for four games, forcing backups like Tyler Huntley to lean on a conservative, check-down-heavy scheme. This shift led to a team aDOT (Average Depth of Target) of 6.7, among the lowest in recent years, boosting tight end Jonnu Smith and running back De’Von Achane but starving wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.

With Tagovailoa, Achane averaged 22.6 PPR points per game; without him, a mere 8.6, per FantasyPros.com.

Tagovailoa’s health remains the linchpin for 2025. His history—missing 11 games over 2022 and 2024—makes him a risky QB2 in fantasy, despite his efficiency. “Tua’s injury risk pushes him outside QB1 range,” notes DraftSharks.com.

The Dolphins’ offensive line, ranked 27th in run-blocking by Pro Football Focus, compounds concerns, especially after losing Terron Armstead to retirement. Miami’s defense, however, offers hope, finishing eighth in EPA per play, which could keep games competitive if Tua falters.

The passing game’s 2024 woes hit Hill and Waddle hard. Hill’s yards per route run plummeted from 3.72 to 1.75, per ESPN.com, raising questions about age-related decline at 31. Waddle, at 26, saw his efficiency drop from 2.5 to 1.5 YPRR but is a safer bet to rebound as a WR2.

Miami’s new tight end, Darren Waller, lured out of retirement, could stretch the seam if healthy, but his 2023 stats (1.55 YPRR) suggest tempered expectations, per NFL.com.

Achane emerged as a fantasy star, leading all running backs with 78 receptions, 592 yards, and six receiving touchdowns. His 4.5 YPC was a letdown from 2023’s 7.8, but his receiving role ensures a high floor, making him a top-five RB in PPR leagues.

Jaylen Wright, poised to replace Raheem Mostert as RB2, offers handcuff value at RB51, especially after Miami’s modest investments in Alexander Mattison and rookie Ollie Gordon II.

DraftKings sets Miami’s 2025 win total at 7.5, with the under at -105. Given Tua’s fragility and Hill’s potential decline, the under feels safer than chasing their +750 AFC East odds.

Will Miami’s offense rediscover its spark, or will injuries derail them again? Fantasy managers and bettors must weigh the risks.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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