ESPN analyst identifies how the Bengals' offense should improve thanks to something largely outside of their control

Originally posted on A to Z Sports | By John Sheeran | Last updated Jun 24, 2025 7:32 PM ET

The floor for the Cincinnati Bengals' offense is set for this year. Cincinnati was seventh in EPA/play, sixth in success rate, sixth in points per game, ninth in yards per game, and ninth in yards per play in 2024. Expectations are for the unit to be even better in 2025.

Their own fumbles bouncing differently can play into that.

Only one other team lost more fumbles than the 13 lost by the Bengals last season. The Dallas Cowboys' 14 lost fumbles were more than any other team in the entire NFL.

It's precisely why ESPN's Mina Kimes has optimism for Cincinnati to be even better on this side of the ball.

Bengals should experience fumble regression in a positive way this year

Kimes placed the Bengals' offense fourth in her league-wide rankings last week on her podcast, The Mina Kimes Show featuring Lenny. Her last bullet point of evidence was a reminder that Cincinnati lost more fumbles than most NFL clubs, and that stat is unlikely to repeat itself the following year.

"One more thing for the Bengals that made me have them fourth, in a positive way, [they] gave up a lot fumbles last year, 29th-league wide," Kimes said. "And fumbles lost, that tends to not be a sticky stat. So it's something to look at as something where the luck is likely to turn and that could help the offense."

The Bengals were technically tied for 29th as two other teams, the Tennessee Titans and Las Vegas Raiders, also had 13 fumbles lost.

Kimes mentioned fumbles lost is not typically a "stick stat," meaning that it doesn't normally carry over into the next year. Fumble recoveries—not just straight up fumbles—are often a random outcome and a team that loses a lot of fumbles one year has a decent chance of experiencing better luck the next season.

Coincidentally, Cincinnati experienced the exact opposite of this last year.

The 2023 Bengals were the luckiest team in football in terms of fumbles lost with just two. No other team had fewer than five. The New York Jets lost a league-most 18 fumbles that season and only lost eight in 2024.

Going from first to essentially last doesn't always happen, but Cincinnati doesn't need to go back to the top of the chart in order to experience offensive improvement. Cutting that 13 down to seven or six could be the difference in another win or two by season's end.

The seesaw leans one way, then back the other way. It's time for the Bengals to experience some good luck to keep their offensive engine humming along.

This article first appeared on A to Z Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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