ESPN analysts share surprising predictions for Drake Maye, Matthew Stafford MVP debate

Living legend and current Fox lead in-game NFL analyst Tom Brady is among the noteworthy members of the football community who have suggested for weeks that Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford should win the 2025 regular-season Most Valuable Player Award over Drake Maye of the New England Patriots.

Multiple ESPN analysts disagree with Brady's take. 

Drake Maye a runaway MVP among some voters? 

For a piece published on Tuesday, eight of 11 ESPN analysts picked Maye as the uncrowned MVP for this past regular season. The other three voted for Stafford. 

"The numbers solidly back Maye for MVP," ESPN analytics writer Seth Walder explained. "He led the league in QBR by a healthy margin, with his 77.1 well outpacing the next-best finisher -- the Packers' Jordan Love at 72.8 -- and fourth-place Stafford at 71.1. The volume translation of QBR -- points above average -- tells a similar story, with Maye clearly alone at No. 1 and Stafford in third. Those numbers also neutralize the biggest knock against Maye -- the Patriots' soft schedule -- because QBR and its derivatives adjust for quality of opponent."

Per Pro Football Reference stats, Maye led the NFL with a 72 percent completion percentage, a 113.5 passer rating and an average of 8.9 yards per pass attempt. Meanwhile, the StatMuse website shows that Maye also led the league with 4,844 combined passing and rushing yards. Stafford finished Week 18 with a league-best 46 combined passing and rushing touchdowns (all passing). 

Drake Maye has MVP edge over Matthew Stafford beyond just numbers? 

Walder is among those who think Stafford had more help than Maye over the 18 weeks of regular-season play. 

"In comparing Maye and Stafford, which one had the elite pair of receivers? Which one had better pass protection? Which one had the better running game to support them? And with all due respect to (New England) offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels, which one had coach Sean McVay designing their offense? The answer to all four of those questions is Stafford," Walder added. 

According to ESPN, DraftKings Sportsbook had Stafford as the betting favorite at -195 odds to earn MVP Award honors when the market closed earlier in January. If voters agree with the ESPN panelists, Maye could earn at least one upset win in February. 

As of Tuesday morning, DraftKings Sportsbook had Maye's Patriots as 4.5-point underdogs for their upcoming Super Bowl LX showdown versus the Seattle Seahawks on Feb. 8.