ESPN Experts Split on Falcons-Buccaneers Week 1 Prediction

The Atlanta Falcons hold a slight advantage in the all-time series versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The ESPN panel of experts predicted the two teams to be close again when they resume their rivalry in Week 1 of the 2025 NFL season.

But the panel gave the Buccaneers the small edge.

ESPN's Eric Moody and Seth Walder predicted Tampa Bay to beat the Falcons by an average of about a touchdown. ESPN's FPI prediction also favored the Buccaneers but in a closer matchup. The FPI gave the Buccaneers a 54.2% chance to win by an average of two points.

ESPN's Pamela Maldonado projected the Falcons to win by two points.

The Falcons have high hopes for their collection of defensive rookies this season. But Walder argued in favor of the Buccaneers winning the Week 1 matchup because of their rookie receiver Emeka Egbuka.

"Egbuka will record at least six receptions in his NFL debut. The buzz around Egbuka this preseason has been too strong to ignore, and he'll come out of the gates making plays right away for a Buccaneers offense that needs him," wrote Walder.

ESPN sees the Buccaneers having an advantage on defense as well. Veteran edge rusher Haason Reddick will try to pressure Falcons first-year starting quarterback Michael Penix Jr. against right tackle Elijah Wilkinson.

Wilkinson is essentially Atlanta's No. 3 right tackle.

"This is the first test to see what Reddick has left in the tank after his lost year with the Jets. It should be an easy one to clear," wrote ESPN's staff.

"Wilkinson will play right tackle for the Falcons with Kaleb McGary and Storm Norton injured. The last time Wilkinson played tackle was in 2021. And over the course of more than 1,300 snaps at tackle between 2019 to 2021, Wilkinson recorded a 73% pass block win rate. That mark would have ranked last among qualifying tackles in 2024."

The Buccaneers have won four consecutive NFC South division titles. They have also earned a playoff berth five straight seasons dating back to their Super Bowl-winning campaign in 2020.

Because of that, it's a little natural to expect Tampa Bay to continue ruling the NFC South. But the Falcons have actually won four of five versus the Buccaneers. Last season, the Falcons swept their rival from Florida.

In their matchup at Mercedes-Benz Stadium during 2024, quarterback Kirk Cousins set a new Falcons franchise record with 509 passing yards. The Falcons won in overtime 36-30.

Boosted by their recent winning streak versus the Buccaneers, the Falcons own a 32-31 edge in the all-time series. The Buccaneers are 4-4 in Atlanta since Mercedes-Benz Stadium opened in 2017.