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Aug 23, 2025; New Orleans, Louisiana, USA; Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton looks on against the New Orleans Saints during the second half at Caesars Superdome. Mandatory Credit: Stephen Lew-Imagn Images Stephen Lew-Imagn Images

ESPN Projects Where Broncos Will Finish in the AFC Playoff Race

Originally posted on Denver Broncos on SI
By Erick Trickel | Last updated Aug 29, 2025 12:32 PM ET

There is a lot of hype surrounding the Denver Broncos for the upcoming season, with many believing they can push the Kansas City Chiefs for the AFC West division title. One of those individuals is ESPN's Mike Clay, who has released his latest NFL projections following the establishment of initial 53-man rosters around the league.

Looking at his schedule projections, he has the Broncos winning 9.9 games and having the seventh-best record in the NFL, while having the 14th-toughest schedule by his own metrics. However, despite having the seventh-best record in the NFL, the Broncos are falling short of the Kansas City Chiefs, who have a projected 10.1 wins, the sixth-best record in the NFL.

Fourth-Best Record in AFC

In the AFC, the Broncos carry the fourth-best record, behind the Baltimore Ravens, Buffalo Bills, and the aforementioned Chiefs. With the NFL not passing a rule change for playoff seeding, the Broncos would secure the fifth seed in the playoffs, behind the Houston Texans, who are projected to have the sixth-best record in the AFC.

That said, 9.9 wins for the Broncos and 10.1 wins for the Chiefs are as close as you can get. It's a coin flip for the division. Since you can’t win a 1/10th of a game, the records would be 10-7 for both teams when rounded, with the Chiefs taking both games over the Broncos.

What's great about Clay’s projections is that they also give you a game-by-game win probability, and the Broncos only have three games below 50%, and two more games right at 50%, or a coin flip.

Win Probability Below 50%: Three Games

The three Broncos games below 50% are Week 5 against the Philadelphia Eagles, Week 13 against the Washington Commanders, and Week 17 against the Chiefs. The Week 11 home game against the Chiefs is one of the two coin flip games, along with the Week 9 game against the Houston Texans. Every other game has the Broncos favored by Clay.

Win Probability Above 70%: Four Games

Clay has more games with a Broncos' win probability above 70% than those below 50%, totaling four games: Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans with 75%, Week 10 against the Las Vegas Raiders at 78%, Week 14 against the Raiders at 71%, and Week 16 against the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In the two games against the Raiders, Clay has found that being at home gives the Broncos a 7% boost to their win probability compared to being on the road. While home-field advantage for the Broncos isn’t what it used to be, they're starting to make it more of a factor again.

Los Angeles Chargers

The other divisional foe, the Chargers, carries an 8% differential for the Broncos at home compared to on the road. The Broncos sit at 60% win probability at home vs. the Chargers, compared to 52% when they go to Los Angeles. Either way, the Broncos are favored in four of their six divisional games.

The Takeaway

This represents a significant shift for the Broncos compared to previous years, particularly last season when Clay had the Broncos under a 50% win probability in every game and the third-worst record in the NFL. The Broncos exceeded Clay's projections last year by making the playoffs.