ESPN Unanimous in Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons Predictions

This feels like familiar ground for the Atlanta Falcons as they prepare to host the Carolina Panthers on Sunday afternoon at 1:00 p.m. at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

The Falcons were favored in Week 3, only to get blown out 30-0 by the 0-2 Panthers. Carolina would go on to lose the next week and drop to 1-3, but they're 4-2 since then.

The Falcons rebounded against the Washington Commanders and Buffalo Bills on national television, only to lose the next four in a row and fall to 3-6.

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On Sunday, the Falcons are favored again, and like last time, ESPN's panel of writers is unanimous in their prediction for Sunday's game.

NFL Reporter Pamela Maldonado, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder, each predicted the Falcons would beat the Panthers in Carolina, and they've done the same for Sunday's game in Atlanta.

ESPN's Predictions: Carolina Panthers vs. Atlanta Falcons

Maldonado's pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 21
Moody's pick: Falcons 23, Panthers 20
Walder's pick: Falcons 19, Panthers 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 58.8% (by an average of 3.4 points

It's hard to picture the Falcons being favored over a team with a better record that beat them by 30 points the last time they faced each other. But the Falcons are a collection of good players and moments that seems to find a way to lose every week.

Special teams and turnovers doomed the Falcons in Week 3. Abysmal third-down conversions has cost Atlanta in the last two games. Atlanta is 3 for 29 (10.3%) on third downs in its last three games. For perspective, the Tennessee Titans are the worst 3rd-down team in the NFL at nearly triple that rate at 28.4%.

The Panthers' scoring offense is No. 28 in the league, one spot behind the Falcons. However, they have been successful running the ball through 10 games. Their 133.1 yards per game is good for No. 8 in the NFL.

The Falcons' rush defense has fallen to No. 29 in the NFL after giving up a franchise-worst 323 yards to the Indianapolis Colts last week. Walder's bold prediction is that Panthers quarterback Bryce Young won't have much luck against Falcons cornerback A.J. Terrell.

"Falcons CB A.J. Terrell Jr. will allow no more than one reception to Tetairoa McMillan," Walder wrote on ESPN. "Terrell has great coverage metrics this season, allowing 0.5 yards per coverage snap (best among outside corners) and just a 9% target rate (second best)."

The formula for both teams is simple: run the ball, stop the run, and limit mistakes.

Whoever does that best on Sunday will come away with a victory.