No one knows what the 2025 season has in store for the Denver Broncos, but that won't stop national and local pundits (like us) from taking a shot. Each offseason following the NFL draft, ESPN's Mike Clay does a statistical analysis projecting what players and teams will do in the upcoming season.
Clay has been doing this for many years, and he's proven to be solid with his projections, but he isn’t infallible. See his projections on Denver's 2024 rookie quarterback, for example.
Today, we're focusing on Clay's stat projections for the Broncos offense. We'll examine by position, starting with the guy under center.
Bo Nix
Stat Projection: 331 completions on 499 attempts for 3,341 passing yards, 24 TDs, 11 INT, sacked 33 times, 75 rushes for 363 yards, and three rushing touchdowns.
While this would not be a bad year for Nix, it would be below expectations. Last year, Nix far exceeded Clay's stat projections, for what it's worth, actually finishing with 3,775 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, with 12 interceptions.
Everyone should be expecting more out of Nix this season, but these stats would be a step back from his production as a rookie. However, a sophomore slump is possible. If it happens, though, it could be a rougher year than expected for the Broncos.
With Sean Payton as the head coach, Nix should be able to avoid the sophomore slump and take the needed steps forward to carry the Broncos back to the playoffs. While Clay’s projections for Nix are solid, Denver will need more out of him.
R.J. Harvey
Stat Projection: 189 rushes for 823 yards and five TD, with 46 receptions on 60 targets for 350 yards and two TD.
Harvey is set to be the Broncos' top back, and they need him to break 1,000 yards rushing and 1,500 yards from scrimmage. While these projections wouldn’t be a bad year, especially for a rookie, the Broncos' running infrastructure is in place for Harvey to have a significantly better year than what Clay projects.
Jaleel McLaughlin
Stat Projection: 108 rushes for 470 yards and three TD, with 31 receptions on 38 targets for 189 yards and a TD.
It would be a bit of a surprise if McLaughlin got this much usage, but there is a wide-open competition for the No. 2 back behind Harvey. Clay's projection of McLaughlin's rushing yardage is fine, but in two years, he has failed to show enough as a receiver.
While McLaughlin's receiving stats aren’t great, they still seem higher than expected unless he finally shows the needed growth here.
Audric Estime
Stat Projection: 47 rushes for 194 yards and a TD, with six receptions on eight targets for 42 yards.
The expectation is for Estime to be the Broncos' second back behind Harvey, as he brings the power and short-yardage element that the other backs don’t. With that in mind, Clay's projections are significantly lower than the Broncos would like out of Estime.
However, there is a chance Estime doesn’t win that spot, and even if he does, he needs to show more as a passing down option, as a receiver, and as a blocker.
Tyler Badie
Stat Projection: 12 rushes for 52 yards, with two receptions on three targets for 13 Yards.
Does Badie make the roster? As he works back from a back injury last season, it's hard to say what kind of role he would have or even if he makes the roster. If he does, it’ll likely be for a specific role, and he will likely see more than 14 total touches on the season.
Michael Burton
Stat Projection: Four rushes for 18 yards, with four receptions on five targets for 29 Yards.
Burton will get some touches as the full-back, as Payton likes to use him in certain situations. However, it isn’t very often that Payton turns to Burton, so these projections are fine.
Courtland Sutton
Stat Projection: 69 receptions on 115 targets for 899 yards and eight TD.
As the Broncos' top receiver, these numbers wouldn’t cut it for Sutton. The Broncos need another 1,000-yard receiving year out of him, even if other receivers step up.
Sutton has to be the top guy in the room. Eight touchdowns would be fine, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see him exceed that with how reliable he has proven in the red zone.
Marvin Mims Jr.
Stat Projection: 48 receptions on 71 targets for 668 yards and four TD, with 26 rushes for 127 yards and a TD.
Clay has Mims as the Broncos' No. 2 receiver, which isn’t the expectation. The expectation is that he will be the third receiver, working out of the slot and as a gadget role player.
Clay's rushing projections are fine, and the receiving yards may not be too far off from where Mims ends the season, except he ends up being the second-most targeted wide receiver.
Pat Bryant
Stat Projection: 31 receptions on 49 targets for 369 yards and three TD.
This is about where Bryant should be projected. He's a reliable receiver and will likely have a clear role on third down and in the red zone. He may not get 49 targets, but somewhere 40-45 with about 30-35 catches, he is not far off.
Troy Franklin
Stat Projection: 19 receptions on 32 targets for 261 yards and two TD, with two rushes for 13 yards.
This is a fair projection for Franklin, who has much growing to do as a wide receiver. His route running was limited entering the league, and he struggled to catch over his shoulder.
If Franklin doesn’t improve there, he will have a niche role in the offense, which would fit these projections. Things can change if Franklin shows more in training camp and preseason.
Devaughn Vele
Stat Projection: 18 receptions on 27 targets for 185 yards and two TDs.
This is the first significant Clay projection that screams being far off. The expectation is for Vele to become the Broncos' second receiver, which would mean at least 60-plus catches on 90-plus targets and 800-plus yards.
If Vele fails to grasp the second spot, he will still have a role and likely look at 40-50 catches this season, similar to last year.
Trent Sherfield
Stat Projection: Three receptions on five targets for 36 yards.
Sherfield was brought in for blocking and special teams play, but he can still see a few targets. It shouldn’t be expected to be more than a handful of targets on the season unless Sherfield has to be used more on offense due to injuries.
Evan Engram
Stat Projection: 73 receptions on 99 targets for 633 yards and three TD, with two rushes for six yards.
Engram has issues staying on the field, so expecting all 17 games out of him is a bit much. These projections are for about 13 or 14 games for Engram, as he is the No. 2 primary weapon for the passing game.
If Engram does manage to play every game, he could exceed these numbers, but with the expectation of a few games missed, Clay's projection is solid.
Adam Trautman
Stat Projection: 14 receptions on 21 targets for 150 yards and two TDs.
Trautman will still have a role on offense, but it won’t be a large one. While these projections are modest, they are fair. If Engram goes down with an injury, despite being a tight end, it is doubtful Trautman is the guy who will step in to fill for Engram.
Lucas Krull
Stat Projection: Five receptions on eight targets for 51 yards.
Krull was a Payton project, but the Broncos have a new tight end project in town: seventh-round rookie Caleb Lohner. Krull has made some plays as a receiver and can still see the field on certain plays.
Additionally, if Engram goes down, Krull is one of the two players likely to be used to fill that role. So, these projections might be a little low for Krull.
Nate Adkins
Stat Projection: Two receptions on three targets for 17 yards.
Adkins is the blocking tight end, and he came along well there last season. There has been enough from him as an outlet at tight end that could see him get a few more catches and yards than projected here, but it's doubtful he will get more than 10 catches and 100 yards, unless injuries debilitate the room.
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