Experts Lean Heavily Toward Cincinnati Against Winless Miami

The Miami Dolphins are home Sunday, but the broad expert consensus treats them like a team facing a steep uphill climb against the Cincinnati Bengals.

Cincinnati enters Hard Rock Stadium at 2-2 after consecutive losses. Miami is 0-4 and averaging an NFL-low 11.5 points per game. That gap in offensive production has pushed most analysts toward the Bengals even though Cincinnati’s top receivers, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, carried questionable designations into the weekend.

USA Today’s three published selections all favor Cincinnati. Adam Kaufman projects a 24-16 Bengals victory, arguing that Joe Burrow can manufacture enough offense even if his receiving corps is limited. Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz calls for Cincinnati to win 26-12, while Blake Schuster offers the most aggressive forecast, 42-20. The common thread is confidence in Burrow and doubt that Miami can score often enough to keep pace.

Bleacher Nation also selects Cincinnati to win but expects Miami to cover a seven-point spread. Its analysis points toward a lower-scoring game, with the total staying under 43.5 points. That forecast leaves room for the Dolphins’ defense to keep the game competitive without trusting Miami’s offense to finish enough drives.

An ATS.io projection lands at Bengals 27, Dolphins 16. The model emphasizes Cincinnati’s advantage in scoring, passing production and overall efficiency. Cincinnati averages 24.3 points and 351.8 yards per game, while Miami produces 267.5 yards and has scored only 46 points through four games.

Covers analyst Nick Galaida recommends Cincinnati against the spread, citing Miami’s league-worst point differential, heavy reliance on rookies and poor offensive success rate. An outlier comes from The Sports Geek, which picks Miami to win, cover and help keep the game under the total.

That dissenting view is not impossible to defend. Cincinnati has lost two straight, its rushing offense ranks near the bottom of the league and Chase and Higgins were not fully healthy throughout the week. Miami also pushed Minnesota in a 15-10 loss and received a 100-yard rushing performance from Ollie Gordon II.

Still, the consensus is unmistakable. Experts trust Burrow more than Malik Willis, Cincinnati’s offense more than Miami’s and the Bengals’ ability to dictate game script. For the Dolphins to overturn those predictions, they need takeaways, a productive running game and their best red-zone performance of the season.