Explaining the Dolphins' Drastic Downfall

To paraphrase the music group Talking Heads, well, how the Miami Dolphins get here?

As they head into their Week 7 game against the Cleveland Browns, the Dolphins are a complete mess in just about every way a team can be a mess, now lowlighted by the conversation about Tua Tagovailoa's postgame comments after the team's latest loss.

It's actually shocking how far the Dolphins have fallen from just two years ago at this time.

Heading into Week 7 of the 2023 season, the Dolphins were 5-1, tied with four other teams for best record in the entire NFL, coming off a rout of the Carolina Panthers during which they had score 35 consecutive points, and a few weeks removed from almost setting a single-game scoring record in that wild 70-20 victory against the Denver Broncos.

The Dolphins offense seemed unstoppable — or close to it — and the defense had a good number of elite players operating a scheme orchestrated by grizzled veteran coordinator Vic Fangio.

That version of the Dolphins, the best we had seen since the glory days of Dan Marino, seems like a distant memory now. Yes, like the glory days of Dan Marino.

So what happened?

How could it fall apart so much? And so quickly?

As always, there's probably not one single perfect answer but an awful lot of good ones.

GOOD PLAYERS GONE

The most simplistic factor involved in the Dolphins' downfall has been the loss of high-end players, compounded by the failure to adequately replace them.

Since that 2023 season, the Dolphins have lost Xavien Howard, Jalen Ramsey, Andrew Van Ginkel, Christian Wilkins and Robert Hunt, along with Connor Williams and Jevon Holland, though the last two have been pretty well replaced by Aaron Brewer and Minkah Fitzpatrick, respectively.

And obviously when we're talking about players like Howard and Wilkins, we're talking about what they were in 2023, not now with Howard retired and Wilkins in limbo as he deals with his grievance with the L.A. Raiders along with a nasty foot injury.

PAYING THE PRICE

And why did the Dolphins lose those players and replace them with inferior talent?

Well, this is where that little thing known as the salary cap comes into play.

The Dolphins were in full go-for-it mode not only in that 2023 season but starting in 2022 when they started bringing in the big names, a movement that began with the trade for Tyreek Hill in March 2022 and continued with other trades for Bradley Chubb and then Ramsey during the 2023 offseason.

Acquiring that kind of high-level talent has its benefits, obviously, but there's a price to pay.

And it's not just the cost of draft capital to acquire the players, it's the toll on the salary cap when you begin having a lot of high-priced talent.

At some point, choices have to be made and it's simply impossible to keep everybody for the long term — or at least it's very, very difficult.

And some of those choices involve the decision of how much to pay for certain players at certain positions, which is what led to the Dolphins saying goodbye to Hunt and Wilkins, for example.

There's not one person who would argue that the Dolphins really could have used Hunt at right guard this season — obviously before he landed on IR because of a biceps injury — but his cap number for 2025 is in excess of $21 million, per Over The Cap.

DISAPPOINTING DRAFTS

This is a common theme that can be used to explain disappointments that extend way beyond this year.

And this is where we point out that every NFL team has its share of hits and misses, and most teams have more misses than hits.

It's just the nature of the beast.

But in going for the win-now approach, the Dolphins left themselves with little draft capital and therefore a smaller margin for error.

And that's why it's been so painful to see the team's top pick in both 2022 and 2023 already gone without making any sort of impact — referring here to Channing Tindall and Cam Smith, of course.

And then the only other 2022 pick before the seventh round was Erik Ezukanma, who also didn't pan out.

In fact, if not for De'Von Achane, the Dolphins would have gotten nothing out of those two drafts.

And then with the past two drafts, the Dolphins simply aren't getting enough out of anybody not named Patrick Paul.

With 2025 draft picks Kenneth Grant and Jonah Savaiinaea, we have to give it a little time, but so far the contribution of 2024 first-round pick Chop Robinson has been a big disappointment, and the same goes for fourth-round pick Jaylen Wright, who can't get on the field one year after the Dolphins traded a future third-round pick (from this past draft) for the opportunity to take him.

CEILING WAS SET

In the end, though, maybe the 2023 season always was going to be as good as it gets for this core group (including coaching staff).

Even in that 2023 season, before injuries really hit hard in the final weeks, there always was the question of whether the Dolphins could win big — as in, playoff win, maybe a run to the Super Bowl — with a style that emphasized speed over size, finesse over physicality.

How often did we hear that the Dolphins really needed to have a home game to have success in the playoffs?

Does that sound like a true Super Bowl contender?

The Dolphins' style of offense always required a lot of precision and timing, and that can be disrupted for a variety of reasons, such as the elements, defensive adjustments, or key injuries — including your quarterback when the system is hyper designed for him and your sub-par backups don't have the skill set to duplicate it.

On defense, the Dolphins simply don't have the personnel they had in 2023, plain and simple, and there's only so much new DC Anthony Weaver can do to minimize the deficiencies.

THE BOTTOM LINE

Notice we didn't include injuries in this rundown, and that's for the simple reason that every team gets hit by injuries, though it indeed would be disingenuous to ignore what happened on defense at the end of the 2023 season.

And, yes, injuries, have played a role in the brutal start to the 2025 season, with Hill gone for the season, the starting right side of the offensive line (James Daniels and Austin Jackson) out since Week 1, and the team's one dependable cornerback coming into camp (Kader Kohou) not even making it to August.

Who knows where the Dolphins would be without those injuries?

But, again, every team has those, and some teams overcame them, no better example than the Tampa Bay Buccaneers right now.

No, the Dolphins' issues run deeper than that.

And it's why they've gone from 5-1 to 1-5 in just two years.

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