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Falcons Playoff Chances: Scenarios for How Atlanta Makes NFL Postseason

Originally posted on Athlon Sports | By Jonathan Adams | Last updated Jan 5, 2025 11:30 AM ET

Heading into NFL Week 18, the Atlanta Falcons' playoff chances are alive, but the team needs some help from a rival in order to make the postseason. This is the rare week where Falcons fans are rooting for the New Orleans Saints.

The Falcons' playoff scenario involves two things happening. Atlanta needs a win against the Carolina Panthers in the team's season finale. A loss to the Panthers would eliminate the Falcons from the NFL playoff picture.

The next item is a bit more challenging. Atlanta also needs New Orleans to upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are 14-point favorites against the Saints, per Action Network.

A Tampa Bay loss would allow the Falcons to finish with an identical record as the Buccaneers. Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker over Tampa Bay thanks to sweeping the season series.

The playoff scenario:

ATL win + TB loss
— Atlanta Falcons (@AtlantaFalcons) January 3, 2024

The Falcons controlled their playoff destiny before a loss to the Washington Commanders in Week 17. Atlanta has a 13% chance to make the NFL playoffs compared to the Buccaneers' 87% odds, per The Athletic's computer model.

NFL.com puts Atlanta's odds at 11% compared to Tampa Bay's 89% chance to make the postseason. The Falcons' chances jump up to 16% with a win over the Panthers.

The Saints face an uphill battle to defeat the Buccaneers. Saints quarterback Derek Carr is sidelined with an injury, and Spencer Rattler will get the start against Tampa Bay.

This article first appeared on Athlon Sports and was syndicated with permission.

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