Falcons QB Michael Penix Jr. Proving He Can Win Without the Deep Ball

FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga – There is not much more that can be said about the pure arm talent that Atlanta Falcons quarterback Michael Penix Jr. brings to the table. If it was not painfully obvious when they drafted him, it became abundantly clear when he stepped in as the team’s starting quarterback late last season, but that gunslinging approach has started to change in 2025.

Last season, the Falcons' quarterback quickly stepped in and produced one of the more explosive offenses in the league.

Over his three starts, he averaged 10.5 air yards per attempt, which would have ranked second among all qualified QBs. Furthermore, he attempted a downfield pass (10+ air yards) on a whopping 47.6% of his throws, the highest rate in the league, which clearly showcased his ability to push the ball vertically. 

For how impressive he was over those final three games, we have yet to really see Penix cut it loose through the first two weeks of the young season. 

Against two of the league’s better defenses, Penix has completed 63.5% of his passes for 433 yards, but has just a single passing touchdown. His 14.3% deep pass percentage has been slashed to 6.3% year over year. 

In the Week 1 loss to Tampa, he completed 23-of-30 passes that were under 10 air yards for 234 yards and a touchdown. He struggled downfield, going just 4-of-12 for 64 yards and failing to complete a single pass over 15 air yards (0-of-7). That trend continued in Week 2, when he failed to complete any of his three attempts over 15 air yards, meaning he is now 0-for-10 on these passes in 2025. 

In 2024, he threw for the league’s second-most yards on those 15+ yard attempts, going 13-of-27 for 316 yards, two touchdowns, and an interception. In 2025, the second-year player is down to just 7.1 yards per attempt (27th in the NFL). 

According to Falcons' offensive coordinator Zac Robinson, teams took note of the effectiveness of his explosive passes over the offseason and have since adjusted to the young quarterback. Against the Vikings, in particular, he confessed to being surprised at how intentional the effort was to take away the deep ball. 

Moreover, Robinson was impressed with the job that Penix did in not getting impatient in games where defenses were active in taking away his deep ball. 

“He's got great judgement with the football,” Zac Robinson said. “That's always been his calling card."

That judgment is very clear once you dig into his advanced numbers. 

Penix has faced the eighth-highest quarterback pressure rate (40%), but he is also tied with Josh Allen for the eighth-best quarterback rating when he does get that pressure (90.8). In these situations, his EPA/dropback is sixth best in the league, and on par with players like Matthew Stafford and Patrick Mahomes. 

He is simply taking what the defense is giving him. 

“Obviously, everybody wants those explosive plays. They want to see those explosive plays. They want to make those explosive plays,” Penix said Wednesday. “But at the end of the day, we’ve got to play winning football, and if winning football is checking the ball down ten times a game, then that’s what it’s going to be.” 

The most important advanced stat of them all, though, is that he is also among the league leaders in limiting turnover-worthy throws. For Penix, holding onto the football is more important than anything. 

“For me, I’ve got to protect the ball and just take what the defense gives me,” the Falcons quarterback explained. “Don’t force the ball, that’s the biggest thing. We have to make sure we win that turnover margin, and you don’t want to give them the ball. For me, it’s just whenever they take those [explosives] away, it’s about taking my check-downs and living to the next play.” 

Despite a rather pedestrian-looking box score on Sunday, Penix did exactly what was necessary to secure a win. The Vikings refused to let the Falcons beat them with their long ball, so they were content to run the ball 38 times in the victory.

“I think Mike has grown and developed as our quarterback,” head coach Raheem Morris reaffirmed. “He’s doing whatever it takes to win.” 

Penix may be a gunslinger at heart, but he’s proving he can win with patience as well as power. When the defenses finally give him his shot downfield, the Falcons know their quarterback will be ready to let it fly.