Falcons Urged to Take Risk for Chance at Dream Draft Scenario

Drafting in the middle of the first round can be rather precarious.

The expectation is to land a star player because teams have done that with selections such as Micah Parsons, Brian Burns or CeeDee Lamb in recent years. But it's far more common to land a quality starter, not a star.

NFL teams can land quality starters in the bottom third of the first round too. So, in 2025, should a team such as the Atlanta Falcons consider a trade back from No. 15 overall?

That would likely lower the possibility of landing a true difference maker, but in return, the Falcons would replenish some of their depleted draft capital.

On Thursday, The Athletic's Josh Kendall argued that's the dream draft scenario for the Falcons this offseason.

"What if Atlanta trades down to get back the third-round pick it sent to New England last year in exchange for Matthew Judon? According to the two most widely circulated draft value trade charts, that would require moving down five to seven spots," wrote Kendall.

The Athletic staff writer strengthed his argument for a trade back by assuming Georgia's Mykel Williams will still be available at No. 21 overall. Then in his "dream" hypothetical, Kendall projected the Falcons to selected Ohio State offensive lineman Donovan Jackson in the second round and Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison with the team's new third-rounder.

"The Falcons trade down from No. 15 in the first round to No. 21, where Williams is slotted on Brugler’s overall list of prospects," Kendall wrote. "The Georgia product has the kind of length coach Raheem Morris and defensive coordinator Jeff Ulbrich covet."

If the Falcons can still land Williams at No. 21 overall, trading back will be a rather easy decision. Of course, the Falcons won't know before the trade if Williams will remain on the board for six more picks.

The Georgia edge rusher might not be available at No. 15 overall. The ESPN big board ranks Williams the No. 9 overall prospect in the entire draft class.

Other draft big boards are a lot more hopeful Williams will be on the board after pick No. 20. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah rated Williams his No. 22 overall prospect on his latest big board. On the Bleacher Report new 2025 big board, Williams was No. 27 overall.

The Falcons don't have to target only Williams in a trade back scenario. The ESPN big board has edge rushers James Pearce Jr., Shemar Stewart and Mike Green all rated between prospect No. 16-22. One or two of them could still be on the board at No. 21 overall if the Falcons trade back.

With a trade back, though, the Falcons might give up their right to pick their preference among those four edge rushers. At No. 21 overall, the Falcons could be left with only one of those edge rushers

So, to feel confident about trading back, the Falcons might have to love several edge rushers or other defensive prospects equally.

If they can pull it off, there's little doubt Kendall's hypothetical is a dream scenario. With a trade back, the Falcons could fill another defensive need in the third round.

"With the third-round pick acquired by moving from No. 15 to No. 21, the Falcons take Notre Dame cornerback Benjamin Morrison, who is the 10th-ranked cornerback and 69th-ranked overall prospect," wrote Kendall.

Landing a prospect at No. 21 that the team would take at No. 15 without a trade back would be a masterful draft move from general manager Terry Fontenot. But will he take the risk of not getting his preferred edge rusher for the chance at the masterful move?