Fantasy analyst offers blunt assessment of the Lions' offense

The departure of offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be impactful. But the Detroit Lions still have most of the pieces of an offense that has been a very fruitful for fantasy football managers, and new offensive coordinator John Morton has made it clear he's not looking reinvent the wheel.

That said, repeating as the top-scoring offense in the NFL will be a tough task. The 68 offensive touchdowns the Lions scored last season were the most in the league, six clear of second place (the Buffalo Bills and the Baltimore Ravens tied with 62).

So regression is to be expected for the Detroit offense this year, it's just a matter of the extent and in fantasy terms foreseeing which players might have the most noticeable regression. Quarterback Jared Goff is a popular one, and a case can be made for some others.

Fantasy analyst lands on blunt assessment of Lions' offense in 2025

CBS Sports fantasy football analyst Heath Cummings led off his "2025 Busts 2.0" column with a look at the most fantasy-relevant Lions' players and their ADPs in early drafts on the site.

"RB2 Jahmyr Gibbs , 4th overall
WR5 Amon-Ra St. Brown, 8th overall
TE4 Sam LaPorta, 57th overall
WR29 Jameson Williams, 63rd overall
RB25 David Montgomery, 66th overall
QB19 Jared Goff, 127th overall"

Cummings is pretty bullish on Goff overall, removing him from consideration as a bust, and to be fair an ADP of QB19 is an overcorrection for Johnson's departure that doesn't hold up on other league hosts. But Cummings couldn't totally ignore the likelihood the Lions' signal caller will have some sort of drop-off this year.

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"I would also add that specifically, Goff's 6.9% TD rate from last year is likely to regress; his prior career high was 5.9% and his career mark even after last year is still just 4.8%. But those arguments apply to pretty much everyone in this offense."

"Gibbs scored on 6.6% of his touches last year, compared to 4.7% in 2023.
St. Brown scored on 8.5% of his targets last year, compared to 4.9% the first three years of his career.
Williams has the same TD regression concerns and is coming off 11.8 yards per target, an efficiency metric no WR has ever been able to maintain.
LaPorta has scored at an insane rate two years in a row, but last year his targets fell so hard that the touchdowns were the only reason he ranked inside the top 12 at the worst position in Fantasy."

Cummings pointed out how the Lions' skill position players being treated independently of Goff based on CBS ADP, and how it doesn't make sense. As for why that is, he offered a two-part answer.

"One, Goff is not going to finish QB19; that's why he was in my sleeper article. Two, at least two of those guys are likely to take a significant step back in 2025."

While projecting the Lions to score 16 fewer touchdown this year than they did last year, Cummings acknowledged how that puts him lower than ADP on Gibbs, St. Brown and LaPorta.

"That puts me lower on Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta than ADP. I have Williams in a very similar place and actually think Montgomery is a value if he stays healthy."

Then Cummings circled back to his prior point, and stood on the hill (alone?) for Goff again.

"I would suggest you figure out which two Lions aren't going to justify their ADP this year. If you can't find two, then you should probably just draft Jared Goff in Round 10 of every draft you do."

It's not a stretch to suggest two Lions' skill position players won't justify their ADP in fantasy this year. It's just a matter of doing your own evaluation to determine which ones might fit the bill, and for what it's worth Cummings seems to be honing in on two of Gibbs, St, Brown and LaPorta.

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