
You know the feeling. It’s why you’re here. That glorious, maddening, weekly riddle that consumes us right until kickoff: WHO DO I START? The impact? Maybe the difference is between mess-talking victory and soul-sucking defeat. And we all want that “edge,” don’t we? That little nugget that pats us on our tushies and tells us everything will be ok. A gentle nudge, if you will. I want you to know that I’m here each week to pat your tushies (figuratively). To give you my two cents on who needs to be touching grass and who needs to be riding pine. And why.
This is your nudge. *pats tushie* Now, let’s get this ‘W’.
Start: Drake Maye (NE @ CIN): Maye is sitting on 2,836 passing yards with a 20 to 5 TD to INT line and a top-tier QBR. Now he gets a Bengals defense that ranks bottom six in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks in a game with a 49.5 total, and New England is favored by more than a touchdown. If you overthink a set it and forget it QB1 against a 3 and 7 defense that is dead last in points and yards allowed, you deserve to watch those points happen on your bench.
Start: Matthew Stafford (LAR vs. TB): Stafford leads the league with 27 touchdown passes against only two interceptions, and now gets a Buccaneers defense that sits in the softer half of the league versus fantasy quarterbacks in a home game with a 49.5 total. In an offense that creates multiple Cedar Point water slides every week and as a touchdown favorite, he is a slam start with four touchdown upside if Tampa has to chase and leaves the back end exposed.
Sit: Shedeur Sanders (CLE @ LV): Sanders just posted a 4 of 16 line for 47 yards with a pick, a QBR barely above zero, and did not lead a single scoring drive. Now he is potentially heading into a road start in a game with a gross 36.5 total, where his head coach still calls him the backup if Dillon Gabriel clears concussion protocol. A third-string rookie with four college coordinators is not the guy you trust in a low-scoring rock fight between two 2-8 teams, especially when even a soft Raiders pass defense can win simply by making him execute basic pro reads.
Sit: J.J. McCarthy (MIN @ GB): McCarthy has 842 passing yards with a 6 to 8 TD to INT line and a QBR in the mid-20s, and is coming off a meltdown game where he sprayed balls all over the field. Now he draws a Packers defense that ranks top seven toughest against fantasy quarterbacks. Throw in a 41.5 total at Lambeau and a division opponent that squeezes the middle of the field, and there is zero reason to stream a struggling rookie who has to be perfect just to land you a middling week.
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