When the Jacksonville Jaguars selected Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL draft, he seemed like one of those prospects that was destined to be a rare instant hit as a pro quarterback. After all, Lawrence had dominated every other level of the game in his life, including a national championship and a Heisman runner-up during his time at Clemson.
However, despite making one Pro Bowl team Lawrence has yet to really put it all together in the NFL. Entering his fifth year in the league, Lawrence's career passer rating is just 85.0 and he's posted an identical 56.1 QBR three seasons in a row.
Lawrence at least has a chance to start this season on the right foot though, as he'll be facing the Carolina Panthers in Sunday's season opener. That makes him a "sneaky start" in fantasy football, according to John Paulsen at 4for4.
"The Panthers did invest both money and draft capital in their defense, but Carolina allowed an average of 31.4 points per game... Trevor Lawrence is probably the best example of a fringe starter type who gets elevated in this matchup. It doesn’t hurt that Carolina yielded the most passing touchdowns (35) last year."
Truth hurts, and the truth is that it's probably going to take more than one good offseason for the Panthers to turn around a defense that was the worst in NFL history last year. Much has been made of their league-worst run defense, but their pass rush was arguably also the worst in the NFL.
Fortunately for Carolina, the Jaguars weren't much better on defense last season and are unlikely to have improved much after hiring a new offensive-minded head coach in Liam Coen. Jacksonville allowed the second-most yards in the league last year and ranked 28th in scoring defense.
That makes Panthers quarterback Bryce Young a sneaky start for Week 1, as well.
"Jacksonville averaged the most passing yards allowed last season (257 per game) and was tied for the fifth-most passing touchdowns (29) as well. The Jaguars also yielded the ninth-most rushing yards to enemy quarterbacks, which could lead to a nice rushing day for Bryce Young. In his last eight games, Young averaged 26.0 yards and 0.63 touchdowns on the ground."
One potential hiccup here is at left tackle, where starter Ickey Ekwonu is listed as doubtful after undergoing an appendectomy just a couple of weeks ago.
Either Yosh Nijman or Brady Christensen will be starting in his place, setting up a potential big day for Jacksonville's top pass rusher, Josh Hines-Allen - who posted 17.5 sacks and 33 QB hits in 2023. Those numbers dropped to eight sacks and 19 QB hits last year, but clearly elite potential is there.
If the Panthers can't keep Allen out of the backfield it will be really difficult for Young to utilize his new downfield weapons like Tetairoa McMillan and Jimmy Horn.
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