Film Study: How Much Should Dolphins Rely on Ashtyn Davis?

The rep above from Week 18 shows how good Davis’ concentration is. He slips while trying to turn and run, but is still capable of finding his balance, collecting his wits, and making a good play on the ball. 

This interception also illustrates an important caveat for Davis’ interceptions — many of them are a product of poor quarterback play or pressure from the defensive line. That doesn’t mean Davis doesn’t deserve some credit. 

The INT above shows how Davis can be responsible for making a good play (tripping and still making the catch), but also be fortunate because the quarterback made a mistake. Tyler Huntley was late and threw off his back foot, causing the ball to hang up in the air extra long. 

Expecting Davis’ luck in this department to continue probably isn’t fair to him, but he does have the requisite range to be a solid enough coverage player for the Dolphins. 

All of Davis’ best reps come in deep zones, and this interception against the Patriots shows his ball skills and range to cover deep zones. 

This is a high-level play by an NFL free safety, so Davis certainly has the needed natural ability to create turnovers. It should be noted that Miami’s defense finished 28th in turnovers created last season. 

Davis’ Coverage Limitations 

More than ever, safeties are asked to play multiple positions. The most valuable safeties can play in deep zones, defend in man coverage from the slot, and step into the box against the run. 

Davis is much more of a deep zones specialist than anything else, which is likely why he saw his snaps drop in recent seasons. He played 56 defensive snaps against the Bills in Week 6 this past season and got a lot of reps in the slot. 

He gave up this touchdown to Mack Hollins, a former Dolphin, where he got isolated in space and beaten easily for the score. 

In Davis’ defense, a wide receiver would be considered a bad matchup for just about any safety in the league, especially in man coverage. But good offenses hunt these matchups, and the Jets had a good secondary, so Davis got pushed down the pecking order for better options. 

Luckily for the Dolphins, Melifonwu is a former cornerback and has some high-quality film playing in the slot. If the Dolphins let Davis sit back as much as possible, while Melifonwu deals with tight ends and big slots, they could end up with a solid safety duo. 

Davis’ Run Defense 

Getting a grasp of Davis’ run defense is a little bit tough because he plays so far off the ball. However, he played closer to the line scrimmage last season, and the results were a fairly mixed bag. 

Against the Bills, Davis missed some tackles and struggled with physicality. This rep shows him whiff on running back Ray Davis in the hole, leading to a big play. 

However, Davis showed a lot more promise against the run in his snaps against the Dolphins. On this rep, he comes down from the deep half and takes on Durham Smythe, forcing De’Von Achane back inside before shedding Smythe and making the tackle. 

He also had two tackles for loss in that game, where he shot through the line of scrimmage early and tripped up the ball carrier in the backfield. 

Still, this doesn’t project as the strongest part of his game. This is another area where Melifonwu and possibly even Patrick McMorris would fare better. The last — and only time — Davis started more than 10 games in a season, he had a missed tackle percentage of 13.9%. 

The Final Word 

If Davis is indeed a Week 1 starter, the Dolphins are making a huge gamble on a player who hasn’t played much in recent seasons. He recorded more special teams than defensive snaps in each of the past three years. 

Having a safety who is also good on special teams is certainly an advantage. Still, that player is usually a third safety — Elijah Campbell has occupied this role for the past couple of years. 

Setting those concerns aside, Davis does have enough baseline traits to be effective as a deep zone defender. His speed, ball skills, and knack for creating turnovers mean there’s also a fair bit of upside. 

The Dolphins’ primary coverage last season was Cover-3, so it makes sense they’d want a player with Davis’ skill set on the back end. If the Dolphins can keep Davis in spots where he’s not forced to play man or stack blocks in the box, he can be a serviceable starter. 

Given Miami’s unwillingness to spend primary assets on the secondary this offseason, that’s about as good as you could ask for. 

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