A handful of teams still have their mandatory minicamps next week and a few others will be hanging around for odds and ends. But for all intents and purposes, the NFL is about to kick off its summer break that won’t end until the start of training camps at the end of July. 

Hopes are high across all 32 organizations, with visions of best-case scenarios and carefully laid plans front and center following an offseason in which nearly every team believes it got better. This is the perfect time to look ahead to the upcoming regular season with a Final 2025 Offseason NFL Power Rankings.

I’m not immune to that optimism. Nineteen teams are ahead of the potential playoff cutoff in my tiers and I could have easily pushed that well above 20. As we saw last year with the Commanders, any team can make a run if things align perfectly. Washington had the No. 2 pick last year and their betting line was set at 6.5 wins. They shattered that with 12 wins and an appearance in the NFC Championship.

However, the reality of the NFL is far harsher. By the end of Week 1, sixteen teams will be winless. Injuries will grind down some teams, and just 14 of 32 will make the playoffs by the end of the year — almost half of which will be different than the batch that qualified this past season. 

This is a first look at trying to project which teams will live up to the hype this fall. Like last year’s version of this article, I’ve not only ranked the teams from 1-32 but also included tiers to provide a better comparison. For instance, the Texans may rank six spots higher than the Jaguars, but they’re in the same tier and have roughly similar playoff aspirations in my view.

Heavyweight Contenders

Early Super Bowl favorites

1 – Kansas City Chiefs

2024 record: 15-2 

2025 betting line: 11.5

Despite the embarrassing loss to the Eagles in the Super Bowl that killed the Chiefs’ lofty goal of three straight titles, I have them ranked at No. 1. There are real challenges Kansas City will have to overcome to get back to the big game, as big as any other team in this tier, but no team has been as consistently excellent for the past several years. That track record serves as a tiebreaker. 

Those challenges are weighted more toward the offense, where the Chiefs will be trying to snap out of a funk that’s dragged on multiple seasons. There was a lot of optimism last year about bringing back the explosive play, but injuries to the receivers derailed that plan. In 2025, the Chiefs are healthier and deeper but it still has to come together. Part of that is making sure the offensive line makeover goes smoothly, with new starters at left tackle and left guard. 

The defense should once again be solid. The Chiefs have some changes in the secondary with a mix of newcomers and holdovers competing for starting jobs. But DC Steve Spagnuolo has a long history of finding quality corners and safeties from unheralded backgrounds. Even if there are bumps in the road, Spagnuolo’s units reliably play their best football in December, January and February — when it matters most. 

2 – Philadelphia Eagles 

2024 record: 14-3 

2025 betting line: 11.5

The Eagles are returning the core of the team that dominated last year, however, there was attrition in spots that Philadelphia will have to overcome. Key starters who left this offseason include CB Darius Slay, OLB Josh Sweat, DT Milton Williams, DE Brandon Graham, G Mekhi Becton and S C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Eagles were prepared with succession plans on the roster in some of those cases, but the team is shallower at pivotal positions like defensive line. 

Still, the core remains — a dominant, overpowering offensive line clearing the way for supremely talented skill players like RB Saquon Barkley, QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown and WR DeVonta Smith, paired with a defense stacked with talent like DT Jalen Carter, LB Zack Baun, CB Quinyon Mitchell and CB Cooper DeJean. Unlike the last time the Eagles reached the Super Bowl, they have more coaching continuity to lean on and avoid as dramatic a regression, including venerable DC Vic Fangio. 

Bottom line, the Eagles might not be as dominant as they were in 2024 but they remain one of the league’s most intimidating squads. 

3 – Buffalo Bills

2024 record: 13-4 

2025 betting line: 11.5

Last year was expected to be a reset year for the Bills after their offseason was marked more by significant departures, like WR Stefon Diggs, than it was by significant additions. Ultimately the Bills maintained their status as one of the best teams in the AFC and were knocking on the door of the Super Bowl yet again before being denied (again) by the Chiefs. 

The Bills have everything they need to keep knocking, starting with QB Josh Allen who earned MVP honors last season. Buffalo was able to replace Diggs in the aggregate, getting a breakout from new slot WR Khalil Shakir and contributions from a wide variety of players. They also benefited from OC Joe Brady’s emphasis on the run game and a career year by RB James Cook with a staggering 18 total touchdowns. Barring a few tweaks, it should look similar in 2025. 

The defense was 11th in scoring last year and was the focus of a lot of this offseason’s efforts to improve. All three levels of the defense got reinforcements, but the focus was definitely the defensive line. The Bills have been chasing a front four that can win without blitzing to help finally close out these high-profile games against star quarterbacks, which is why they poured three draft picks and three major free agent signings into the unit. 

Time will tell if the Bills can emerge as the last team standing in the ring of fire that is the AFC, but once again they have a shot. 

4 – Baltimore Ravens

2024 record: 12-5 

2025 betting line: 11.5

Ravens QB Lamar Jackson didn’t win MVP last year, losing out to Allen in a close vote, but he arguably played better than either of his two previous MVP seasons. Jackson was dialed in all year and tossed 41 touchdowns to just four interceptions, racking up over 4,000 passing yards, 900 rushing yards and another four scores on the ground. That remarkable output helped lift up the Ravens in a year that also could have been a step back considering how many key players they lost from a 2023 team that was the No. 1 seed in the AFC. 

Asking any player to repeat that kind of season is unfair. That said, the Ravens have all the ingredients in place to keep rolling. Star RB Derrick Henry is back with a sparkling new deal and showed no signs of slowing down last year as he rumbled for 1,921 yards. The top four pass catchers — WR Zay Flowers, TE Mark Andrews, TE Isaiah Likely and WR Rashod Bateman — are all back and Baltimore added WR DeAndre Hopkins who should be a sure-handed clutch complement to that group. 

The defense finished as a top-ten unit in the first year under DC Zach Orr despite some early bumps, and nearly every starter or key player is back. Barring a disastrous run of injuries, the Ravens should once again be one of the top teams in the league. 

Midweight Contenders

Capable of contending with good health and overcoming one or two weaknesses

5 – Detroit Lions 

2024 record: 15-2 

2025 betting line: 10.5

The Lions were one of the best teams in football last year before a devastating run of injuries finally depleted them past the point of survival. A white-hot Commanders team in the divisional round ended their season. Now, the budding program HC Dan Campbell and company are building in Detroit is going to run into its biggest test yet, facing a different kind of attrition after losing both OC Ben Johnson and DC Aaron Glenn to head coaching gigs. 

Defensively, new DC Kelvin Sheppard seems well-suited to replace Glenn, bringing a similar aura and mindset to the table (though it’s worth noting Glenn had some rocky learning patches early on). The Lions have augmented the talent on defense significantly the past couple of years, and the return of DE Aidan Hutchinson is hard to overstate. The bigger question is on offense where Campbell tabbed veteran OC John Morton to replace Johnson, who called plays for three-straight top-five offenses. Some regression is just inevitable when replacing a play-caller who’s that talented. 

Morton’s resume doesn’t sparkle nearly as much. His only previous NFL play-calling experience was with the Jets in 2017, who ranked 28th in points and 24th in yards. Then again, that was with Josh McCown primarily under center throwing to Robbie Anderson and Jermaine Kearse. The Lions have more talent, and Morton is spoken of highly by Campbell and his mentor, Broncos HC Sean Payton. It’s also worth noting Campbell has had a sneaky hand in the Lions’ offensive success the past few years. While some regression feels likely, there’s a good chance the Lions remain dangerous on offense — although they also need to overcome more attrition on the interior offensive line with the departures of G Kevin Zeitler and C Frank Ragnow.  

Detroit will almost certainly win fewer games in 2025 than 2024 and might even be overtaken in the NFC North, which remains one of the toughest divisions in football. But Campbell has built something real here and the Lions are here to stay, even if it takes overcoming some adversity. 

6 – Los Angeles Rams

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 9.5

The Rams are back, and I think 2025 will serve as a major announcement of that to the rest of the league. Not that Los Angeles went anywhere. It’s still on the coast of California despite what you may have been told, and the Rams have been in the playoffs the last two years in what were supposed to be rebuilding years. That experience should serve a young core of stars well, and the Rams still have experienced leaders like HC Sean McVay, QB Matthew Stafford and WR Davante Adams to complement that group. 

From a roster perspective, the Rams don’t have many holes and have plenty of difference-makers in key spots. Keeping Stafford was huge and adding Adams gives the Rams a more dynamic complement to WR Puka Nacua than what WR Cooper Kupp was able to bring the last couple of years. McVay’s teams have always gone as the offensive line has gone, and the unit returns all five starters from last year after locking up LT Alaric Jackson and preventing him from reaching free agency. 

On defense, the overhaul after the departure of Aaron Donald has been swift and stunning. Los Angeles snared OLB Jared Verse in the first round last year and he won Defensive Rookie of the Year in his debut. Verse, DT Braden Fiske, OLB Byron Young and DT Kobie Turner could make a claim as the best front four in football if they take the step forward the team is envisioning. The secondary and linebacker groups aren’t as stacked with talent but the Rams have decent to good options at several of those spots — and a trade for CB Jalen Ramsey would alleviate the last, biggest weakness. Injuries are always a complicating factor but the Rams are shaping up to be one of the top teams in the NFC. 

Lightweight Contenders

Reloading or still building, but talented enough to not be counted out

7 – Denver Broncos

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 9.5

This is an aggressive ranking for the Broncos but the longer I look at this team, the more I talk myself into a big leap for Denver. I thought the public was significantly underrating the Broncos last year and called it out multiple times. They ended up nearly doubling their preseason betting line of just 5.5 wins. The defense was No. 3 in points allowed, and not only was QB Bo Nix far better than most pundits predicted, he was an outstanding fit for Payton — who also showed he hadn’t lost his fastball. 

Denver spent this offseason trying to amp up a defense that was already pretty good, adding LB Dre Greenlaw, S Talanoa Hufanga and first-round CB Jahdae Barron to a group returning all 11 starters and DC Vance Joseph. On offense, the Broncos return all five starters from one of the league’s better offensive lines and added some more skill position firepower in TE Evan Engram, second-round RB RJ Harvey and RB J.K. Dobbins. 

All that’s important, but in the end it’s going to be Nix who has the biggest impact on whether the Broncos close the gap between them and the heavy hitters in the AFC. Nix already established himself as a polarizing player as a rookie, someone who might not be as good as his most rabid supporters say and who definitely isn’t as bad as his critics insist. In a lot of ways, he’s like 49ers QB Brock Purdy, who has been fighting off the game manager label despite piling up lots of wins and stats. Nix is more physically gifted than Purdy, however, and while he’s got some ground to make up to match the former Mr. Irrelevant, Payton’s got a long history of maximizing his players’ potential. 

Sophomore QBs can go one of two ways, and if Nix has a slump, it’ll drag the Broncos down and out of the playoffs. But if he takes that second-year leap and plays with more consistency, eliminating the stretches of bad play and increasing the moments of brilliance, the Broncos will be able to do some damage. 

8 – Los Angeles Chargers

2024 record: 11-6 

2025 betting line: 9.5

This is as good a time as any to own up to the fact I had some doubts about how Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh would transition back to the NFL after so long in the college game. While Harbaugh’s old-school style was unchanged, it ended up working effectively last season, partially because the league as a whole is swinging back toward physical, ground-and-pound offenses, partlialy because QB Justin Herbert is a brilliant talent. 

Now the Chargers are looking to build on that success, though the improvements they made this offseason could be better classified as incremental rather than aggressive. Los Angeles had tons of cap space available but the biggest deals they signed outside of bringing back OLB Khalil Mack were a two-year, $19.8 million contract for G Mekhi Becton and a two-year, $13 million deal for CB Donte Jackson. Los Angeles drafted well last year and might be looking to repeat that, with a nine-player class that includes first-round RB Omarion Hampton and second-round WR Tre Harris. 

Still, the team addressed weaknesses at receiver, defensive line and pass rush. The staff is back, including DC Jesse Minter who is a rising star and potential future head coach. The biggest knock on the Chargers is the division they play in, and like a ton of teams, they have not been able to figure out a way to get past the Chiefs. 

9 – San Francisco 49ers

2024 record: 6-11 

2025 betting line: 10.5

There was a lot of noise about the 49ers taking a step back earlier this offseason when there were so many cuts and prominent departures. San Francisco traded away WR Deebo Samuel and sounded open to moving WR Brandon Aiyuk after having buyer’s remorse on the deal he signed just this past summer following contentious negotiations. The team held on to Aiyuk but still has a league-leading $93 million in dead money — cap space allocated to players no longer on the roster. 

But the betting line for the 49ers is among the best in the league, partially because of a soft schedule that includes eight games against the AFC South and NFC South, plus last-place matchups against the Browns, Giants and Bears. Like the Bills last year, the 49ers’ demise may have also been exaggerated, as there’s still a fair amount of talent on the team and the core of HC Kyle Shanahan and QB Brock Purdy remains intact. 

Speaking of Purdy, the 49ers have gone a long way toward correcting the vibes after previous contentious negotiations and got Purdy locked up relatively early in the offseason rather than dragging things out into August as had been their tendency with other star players. 49ers LB Fred Warner and TE George Kittle also signed new deals, and the hope is RB Christian McCaffrey returns healthy after missing most of last season. Aiyuk is recovering from a torn ACL but Shanahan and Purdy still have Kittle, McCaffrey and some other weapons to lean on. I’d be remiss not to mention future Hall of Fame LT Trent Williams returning for another season, either. 

There’s more transition on the defensive side, but the return of DC Robert Saleh could be huge. The 49ers have also been searching for complementary pass rushers for DE Nick Bosa for years, and the 2025 batch looks promising with first-round DE Mykel Williams, former Jets standout DE Bryce Huff and DE Yetur Gross-Matos. Defensive tackle is a bit of a question mark but the 49ers hit that position hard in the draft. Ultimately, Saleh’s track record and the depth at edge rusher fuels a lot of my optimism about San Francisco’s defense, and the offense is in solid shape. I think the 49ers will be able to clear their betting line. 

10 – Green Bay Packers

2024 record: 11-6 

2025 betting line: 9.5

Best as I can tell, this is lower than the consensus on the Packers entering 2025. Last year, Green Bay was a solid team that won 11 games, but went 0-6 against teams with 11 wins or more. Put another way, they were good but not great and got bounced in the first round of the playoffs by the Eagles. 

I have similar concerns about the Packers this year. The team’s strengths are the same. This is one of the deepest rosters in the league and the best-positioned of nearly any team to handle the inevitable attrition of a season. They’ve got a talented, playmaking quarterback in Jordan Love, a strong offensive line spearheaded by RT Zach Tom and C Elgton Jenkins, skill position talent like RB Josh Jacobs, WR Jayden Reed and TE Tucker Kraft, and a defense that includes S Xavier McKinney, DE Rashan Gary, LB Edgerrin Cooper and DT Kenny Clark. 

I think the offense should be better in 2025 with a healthier year out of Love, who got hurt in Week 1 and fought through it for months despite missing minimal game action. First-round WR Matthew Golden could unlock better play from the receiving corps as a whole, as the Packers needed a player who could stretch the field and consistently beat man coverage. Golden’s a perfect fit, even if expectations should be moderated given he’s a rookie. 

But the defense is a potential pain point. Last year’s unit finished sixth in scoring and fifth in yards allowed in the first year under DC Jeff Hafley. Green Bay pulled down a respectable 45 sacks, but was middle-of-the-pack in pressure rate. Gary led the team with 7.5 sacks and no one else had more than five. The Packers elected to leave the defensive line largely unchanged, counting on players like DE Lukas Van Ness to take a step forward for improvement. If that doesn’t happen, a thin cornerback group could be put under even more pressure. The starting trio of Keisean Nixon, Nate Hobbs and Carrington Valentine is solid but the depth behind those three is non-existent. 

Add it all up along with some natural inconsistency from Love, and the Packers could once again find themselves with a limited ceiling. However, if the defense holds up and Love gets hot, Green Bay is absolutely a team that can go on a run. 

11 – Washington Commanders

2024 record: 12-5 

2025 betting line: 9.5

Last season was a remarkable run for the Commanders and a much-needed breath of fresh air for an organization that has seen so much dysfunction. They won’t be sneaking up on anyone this year, though. Fans hate the word regression but the Commanders are screaming regression candidates in a number of areas. 

That doesn’t mean Washington didn’t get better this offseason, or that Day 1 star QB Jayden Daniels will take a step back. Because of the nature of the Commanders’ success last year, Daniels could be better in 2025 and the team could still lose more games. 

The Commanders caught lightning in a bottle in so many ways last year. They entered the season with questions about the offensive line, play-calling, receiving corps outside of WR Terry McLaurin and the defense. Every single one of those areas dramatically exceeded expectations. Sure, there’s an element of forecasters just getting it wrong, but it’s also true Washington found a way to punch above its weight. The Commanders were remarkably successful throwing the ball deep, converted 87 percent of their fourth-down attempts and were 8-2 in one-score games. All of those stats have an element of randomness to them and tend to gravitate toward the mean year over year. 

Last year’s success overshadowed just how big a rebuilding job new GM Adam Peters and HC Dan Quinn took on. While they sped up their timeline, swinging trades for guys like LT Laremy Tunsil and WR Deebo Samuel, you can still see holes in some places on the roster, especially the pass rush. A true Super Bowl contender probably needs a better top edge rusher than Dorance Armstrong. Perhaps the Commanders once again go on a fairy tale run but my hunch is 2025 presents tougher sledding. 

Playoff Hopefuls

Good enough to challenge for a playoff berth but doubts about ceiling

12 – Houston Texans

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 9.5

The Texans joined a long list of teams to “win” the offseason yet go on and disappoint during the regular season. Houston made a ton of splashy additions and expected a big year from QB C.J. Stroud, the 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year. Stroud wasn’t bad but the Texans offense as a whole took a step back, snowed under by poor performance from the offensive line. 

To fix that issue, the Texans opted to trade their best lineman, Tunsil, and completely rework the room in search of a grittier, higher-character group of five. They also fired OC Bobby Slowik just a year after he was a hot head coaching candidate and replaced him with former Rams and Patriots assistant Nick Caley. Slowik was a branch of the Shanahan coaching tree, and while Caley has spent time with McVay in Los Angeles the past couple of years, his offense will likely have more in common with the heyday of Tom Brady and the Patriots. That could better suit the strengths of the Texans’ offensive line but the group as a whole remains a question mark that makes it hard to be too bullish on Houston. 

If the Texans do pull off the one-year OL makeover, they have a budding franchise quarterback, talented receivers and a ferocious defense with stars at all three levels. That’s a recipe for a dangerous team, maybe even a championship-caliber team. It’s just too hard to project that given the current starting five. 

13 – Cincinnati Bengals

2024 record: 9-8 

2025 betting line: 9.5

Is this too low for the Bengals? Maybe, but Cincinnati has made me look like a sucker for two years in a row, so you can’t fault me for wanting to see them earn back my good graces. At the end of the day, this team is shaping up to look an awful lot like last year’s. The Bengals leaned hard on a brilliant season from QB Joe Burrow who led the NFL with 43 passing touchdowns and 4,918 yards. Had the defense held up its end of the bargain and gotten a few more stops to get the Bengals into the playoffs, Burrow could have made a push for MVP. 

It’s hard to feel a whole lot better about the defense. They swapped out longtime DC Lou Anarumo for Notre Dame DC Al Golden, who has three decades of experience but never been an NFL coordinator. They’ve moved to get younger in a couple of spots but most of the personnel is the same. And of course, there’s the lingering contract dispute with DE Trey Hendrickson — by far Cincinnati’s best defensive player last year and one of the top pass rushers in football with 35 sacks the past two years. Unless Golden coaches his tail off, it’s hard to see this being a top-ten unit. 

Cincinnati was within a whisker of the playoffs last year, so they could still end up qualifying in 2025 if Burrow and the offense are equally brilliant. I have my doubts that there’s much more in the cards than that, though if you get Burrow into the postseason, I guess anything’s possible. 

14 –  Minnesota Vikings

2024 record: 14-3 

2025 betting line: 8.5

This might be low for a team that won 14 games last year, but at the same time, it’s also an aggressive ranking for a team with essentially a complete unknown at quarterback. Vikings QB J.J. McCarthy might as well be a rookie after getting just a handful of preseason pass attempts before a knee injury shut him down last year. Even though the Vikings drafted him in the top ten, he was viewed as a developmental play who was going to start out behind QB Sam Darnold regardless. Now he’s got the keys to the car all to himself and is responsible for not wrecking it. 

The good news is that Vikings HC Kevin O’Connell has proven to be about as QB-proof as a coach can be in the NFL, pulling career-bests out of Darnold, Kirk Cousins and even Joshua Dobbs for a spell. He’ll be like a driver’s ed teacher in the passenger seat preventing McCarthy from a catastrophic accident. Minnesota invested a lot in improving the offensive line and running game to take pressure off McCarthy, and the skill talent with WR Justin Jefferson, WR Jordan Addison and TE T.J. Hockenson is still elite. 

The Vikings also tried to take major strides on defense this offseason, giving DC Brian Flores some talent to go with a cutting-edge scheme. Minnesota double-dipped with free agent DTs Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave, then took a shot on CB Isaiah Rodgers. The front seven is in great shape, the back end is a little less sturdy on paper, but as a whole, the Vikings should once again be a handful on that side of the ball. The biggest question about this team is easily what they’re going to get out of McCarthy. 

15 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 9.5

Four straight NFC South titles have earned the Buccaneers the benefit of the doubt, and HC Todd Bowles has gone a long way toward calming any potential heat on his seat with those wins plus his streak of quality offensive coordinator hires. Tampa Bay has had Dave Canales and Liam Coen poached in back-to-back offseasons. They face that transition again this year, but the internal promotion of Josh Grizzard should keep the theme of continuity along with the return of virtually the entire offense. 

The Bucs are talented, deep and experienced on both sides of the ball, and made steps to address weaknesses at pass rusher and cornerback this offseason by bringing in OLB Haason Reddick and double-dipping on cornerbacks in the draft. All told, the Buccaneers are getting some hype as a potential breakout team in 2025 that can jump into the fray with the top teams in the conference. 

I’m not sure I can quite get on that bandwagon. Bowles has proven himself to be a competent coach but I think he has more in common with former Panthers and Commanders HC Ron Rivera than he does someone like Steelers HC Mike Tomlin. Rivera is a first-class person but as a coach, his record of 102-103-2 does a pretty good job of encapsulating how he stacks up against his peers, even if he did make a Super Bowl appearance with Carolina. 

Bowles is 27-24 the past three seasons in Tampa Bay. He deserves credit for a stable transition from Tom Brady to Baker Mayfield, which has far surpassed the expectations anyone outside the building had, but the team still has hovered around the middle of the pack. I’m not sure how much more the Bucs are going to be able to tap into. 

16 – Pittsburgh Steelers

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 8.5

I’m not sure what to do with the Steelers for this upcoming season. On the one hand, this is certainly an eclectic mix of players, personalities and schemes, with QB Aaron Rodgers and WR D.K. Metcalf coming on board to a unit helmed by OC Arthur Smith. Rodgers has butted heads with just about every coach outside of Nathaniel Hackett for years, and the production on the field has justified it less and less. How will he fare with Smith who made headlines for trying to constrict last year’s starter, QB Russell Wilson, at the line of scrimmage last year? Rodgers is also a notorious stickler for detail, so how will he fair with a No. 1 receiver in Metcalf who is…not. 

On the other hand, there’s a high bar of historical competence for a lot of the individuals here. Even Rodgers’ past season with the Jets was solid statistically. Tomlin is infamously a high-floor coach and has squeezed eight wins out of a quarterback room of Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges. So surely there’s a higher ceiling with Aaron freaking Rodgers at quarterback, right? 

Flying under the radar in discussions about the Steelers right now is the offensive line, which has a chance to be a strength. Pittsburgh has two first-round tackles in Broderick Jones and Troy Fautanu, an elite center in Zach Frazier and two solid guards in Isaac Seumalo and Mason McCormick. Jones and Fautanu are young players who need to prove they can be consistent but this group has upside and that could go a long way in helping pull together whatever this offense is going to be. Defensively, the Steelers are starting to get old on that side of the ball but there’s still a ton of talent.

I could see the Steelers surprising and pushing for the division title with Baltimore. I could also see this year being frustrating and ending with no playoff berth. The only thing I feel absolutely confident predicting is that some way, somehow, Tomlin is going to get this squad to at least eight wins.  

17 – Chicago Bears

2024 record: 5-12 

2025 betting line: 8.5

Buying any kind of hype on the Bears has burned people more often than not. I have a hard time not liking what Chicago has coming together, however. There’s always an uncertainty factor for first-time head coaches but new Bears HC Ben Johnson has shown more charisma and leadership than I was aware he possessed as a play-caller for the Lions. He’ll retain play-calling duties and has already shown himself to be a force multiplier in that area. The true tests and adversity are still to come, but I can’t help but like the early returns from Johnson. 

From a roster perspective, Bears GM Ryan Poles has made his fair share of whiffs, but he’s done a good job of acquiring enough draft picks to overcome that. I’m far lower on Poles than Johnson, but the talent dotting the roster is appealing. In particular, while QB Caleb Williams’ rookie year was a nightmare, he still showed flashes of unnatural talent and did not completely cave in along with his surroundings. His mentality with Johnson has also been positive and I think the two could be a special pairing — again, with the caveat that they’ve faced little real adversity to this point. 

I thought the Bears did a brilliant job overhauling the interior offensive line with G Joe Thuney, C Drew Dalman and G Jonah Jackson, which gives Johnson an engine to power his offense. At the skill positions, I think WRs D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze and second-rounder Luther Burden are a promising trio, and that’s before factoring in first-round TE Colston Loveland. Veteran TE Cole Kmet and RB D’Andre Swift are starting-caliber players as well, though I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pushed out down the road. 

All told, it feels like Johnson has all of the pieces in place to coax a big leap out of Williams. The defense was also solid stout last year with talent at all three levels and should benefit from the addition of DC Dennis Allen. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Bears end up as a top-ten team by the end of the season. 

Given it’s the Bears, I also wouldn’t be surprised if they fell on their face again. 

18 – Jacksonville Jaguars

2024 record: 4-13 

2025 betting line: 7.5

The Jaguars are another potential breakout team flying under the radar right now. The team did what it had to do to land HC Liam Coen this offseason, finishing off the last of former GM Trent Baalke‘s nine lives. Coaches who can be difference-makers as offensive playmakers and architects are in high demand, and Coen had a brilliant 2024 season with the Bucs and Mayfield. He has a more talented passer to work with in Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence, and if he can spark a similar leap from Lawrence, the Jaguars could be frisky. 

There’s a lot else to like about Jacksonville, including 2024 first-round WR Brian Thomas Jr. who hit the ground running as a rookie and a defensive line that includes DE Josh Hines-Allen, DE Travon Walker and DT Arik Armstead. And of course, there’s the No. 2 pick, WR/CB Travis Hunter, whom the Jaguars have big plans on both sides of the ball. 

The flipside of this is the Jaguars have been acting an awful lot like a team that thinks it’s smarter than the rest of the NFL. Sometimes that kind of confidence is warranted. The Rams have been one of the biggest zig instead of zag teams the past several years. More often than not, those teams get brough back to earth. Think the Falcons last year (another team with roots in the Los Angeles program) or the Browns. 

19 – Dallas Cowboys

2024 record: 7-10 

2025 betting line: 7.5

People love to kick the Cowboys when they’re down and there has been plenty of ammunition between the poor record last year, the injury to QB Dak Prescott and the weird coaching search that ultimately landed on Brian Schottenheimer of all people. But while I can’t defend owner Jerry Jones’ process at all, I think he may have accidentally backed into something real with Schottenheimer. 

Coaching hires are notoriously difficult to predict. Highly-touted coaches fall on their face and hires that are ridiculed end up being home runs. Schottenheimer doesn’t have a stellar record as an offensive coordinator — though it’s better than you remember — and he’s bounced around as an assistant for almost 24 years with no previous head coaching experience. However, the head coaching job is different than being a coordinator. Schottenheimer’s strengths might line up better as a head coach than as a coordinator, even if he’ll retain play-calling duties. 

It’s just a gut feeling but I think Schottenheimer and the Cowboys can exceed expectations in 2025, partially because they’re so low. There’s still a lot of talent on this roster, including Prescott, WR CeeDee Lamb and DE Micah Parsons, even if there are some big holes on defense in particular. That puts a ceiling on how far I think the Cowboys can go this year but I wouldn’t count them out from making the playoffs if things come together right. 

Middle Of The Pack

Average to below-average

20 – Seattle Seahawks

2024 record: 10-7 

2025 betting line: 7.5

The Seahawks may not have come into this offseason expecting to do a full facelift on offense, but that’s what ended up happening after trading away both QB Geno Smith and WR D.K. Metcalf. They replaced them with QB Sam Darnold and WR Cooper Kupp, who have some schematic overlap with new OC Klint Kubiak. The offensive line remains a significant question mark even after drafting first-round OL Grey Zabel. At the end of the day, it’s hard to say the Seahawks did anything except take a step back on that side of the ball. 

Conversely, Seattle could be absolutely nasty on defense this year. Things started to come together under first-year HC Mike Macdonald as last season progressed, and the Seahawks finished 11th in scoring defense and 14th in total defense. With more time on task, development from some younger players and additions like DE DeMarcus Lawrence and second-round S Nick Emmanwori, it’s reasonable to think the Seahawks can improve on those numbers. They probably have to in order to compensate for the offense. 

21 – Arizona Cardinals

2024 record: 8-9 

2025 betting line: 8.5

Arizona has shown progress over the past two years under GM Monti Ossenfort and GM Jonathan Gannon, going from 4-13 to 8-9 this past year. That progress could have been even more pronounced, as the Cardinals were 6-4 and in pole position in the NFC West before fading down the stretch. Year 3 is big for everyone involved, including QB Kyler Murray. Right now, there’s been minimal heat on the Cardinals brain trust or Murray. Failing to make the playoffs in 2025 would bring up some hard questions. 

The good news is the Cardinals have been active adding talent on both sides of the ball, but especially defense this offseason. Newcomers include OLB Josh Sweat, DL Calais Campbell, first-round DT Walter Nolen, second-round CB Will Johnson and DT Dalvin Tomlinson. The coordinators on both sides of the ball for Arizona, OC Drew Petzing and DC Nick Rallis, have flashed some interesting potential but need to put it all together in 2025 now that they have as much talent to work with as they’ve had at any point. 

The way the Cardinals faded last year gives me some pause that they’ll follow through this year. 

22 – Las Vegas Raiders

2024 record: 4-13 

2025 betting line: 7.5

Not many teams improved as much as the Raiders did this past offseason. They hired HC Pete Carroll, traded for QB Geno Smith, used their first pick on RB Ashton Jeanty and filled in a few other cracks with players like S Jeremy Chinn, second-round WR Jack Bech and LB Germaine Pratt. The team raised the floor for what this season could look like in a major way. 

The catch is, the Raiders could legitimately double their win total from last year and still finish out of the playoffs and in the middle of the pack. Major holes remain on this roster, especially on defense in the back seven. Carroll’s a good coach and the Raiders have some defensive line talent to try to compensate, but it could get rough. Fortunately, they have the offense to win some shootouts. Smith is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the league for my money. With Jeanty, TE Brock Bowers and the other pass catchers, plus the X-factor of new OC Chip Kelly, the Raiders have some pieces to be a lot of fun. 

23 – Carolina Panthers

2024 record: 5-12 

2025 betting line: 6.5

Carolina’s been a punch line for most of owner Dave Tepper’s tenure since buying the team in 2018. Last season got off to a rough start with former No. 1 QB Bryce Young getting benched after just two games by a coaching staff that was hired to fix him. Shockingly, that wasn’t the end for Young. He returned to the lineup later in the season and put together a string of legitimately good performances, cementing his place as the starter for this upcoming season. 

The Panthers spent this offseason trying to stockpile ammunition to build on that momentum in 2025. They overhauled a defense that was historically bad, adding DT Tershawn Wharton, S Tre’Von Moehrig, OLB Patrick Jones and DT Bobby Brown in free agency and double-dipping on OLBs Nic Scourton and Princely Umanmielen in the draft. But they didn’t neglect Young and the offense, adding first-round WR Tetairoa McMillan to try and ensure he has the support to take his game to another level. 

All that work has certainly made the roster better. How much better remains to be seen. Carolina’s roster probably still lags behind most of the top teams in terms of talent, but in the NFC South they absolutely could get hot and make a run. Even if the Panthers are still a year away from truly being relevant, there’s a lot to be optimistic about in Carolina for the first time in a while. 

24 – New England Patriots

2024 record: 3-14 

2025 betting line: 7.5

The Patriots have been the busiest team in football, overhauling most of last year’s roster that mustered only three wins. New HC Mike Vrabel has been the impetus for most of that change as he puts his stamp on the team. Like the Panthers, there’s a lot to be optimistic about. The Patriots have a budding young QB in Drake Maye, improved the talent around him at pass catcher with veteran WR Stefon Diggs, third-round WR Kyle Williams and others, reinforced the offensive line with first-round LT Will Campbell, veteran C Garrett Bradbury and RT Morgan Moses, and (DEEP BREATH) added a wave of talent to overhaul a defense that was also bad last year, but overshadowed by the struggles on offense. 

The question is how many wins all this improvement adds up to. There’s no question the Patriots will be more competitive than last year, and if there’s a candidate to make a huge leap like the 2024 Commanders or 2023 Texans, it’s probably the Patriots. However, there are still major concerns at premium positions like the offensive line, pass rush and receiver. Those weaknesses could mean the Patriots end up waiting another year for a return to the playoffs. 

25 – Atlanta Falcons

2024 record: 8-9 

2025 betting line: 7.5

This is certainly not where the Falcons see themselves. Atlanta fancied itself a contender last year with the addition of veteran QB Kirk Cousins, and now that they’ve moved on to QB Michael Penix Jr, they still hold the same internal expectations. Penix started the last three games of the season and flashed his outstanding arm talent. For all intents and purposes, though, 2025 is going to be his rookie season. There will be learning moments, even if the Falcons overall have the goods to be explosive on offense with WR Drake London and RB Bijan Robinson. 

The bigger issue with the Falcons remains the defense, where once again they were handicapped from doing more to shore things up by the investment they made at quarterback. The two biggest changes were swapping in DC Jeff Ulbrich for former DC Jimmy Lake, which is definitely an upgrade. Ulbrich helped build some great defenses with the Jets the past few years. The second was reinforcing the pass rush, albeit at great cost, with first-round LB Jalon Walker, first-round OLB James Pearce and veteran OLB Leonard Floyd. 

Asking the rookies to turn Atlanta’s ineffective pass rush around is a tall order, though, and the Falcons still have issues in the secondary. There’s going to be a lot on Ulbrich’s shoulders, and it’s not like the offense won’t be working through bumps as well. This season feels more like one in which the Falcons will be searching to find their stride rather than contending unless Penix is just lights out from the jump. 

Bottom Of The Barrel

Likely picking in the top ten

26 – Miami Dolphins

2024 record: 8-9 

2025 betting line: 8.5

It has not been a good offseason for the Dolphins. Once again, financial limitations forced them to let players walk while largely sitting out free agency. That was before things became untenable with CB Jalen Ramsey, with both sides ready for an exit after just signing a major extension at the start of last year. The Dolphins are having contract problems with TE Jonnu Smith as well, contributing to the bad vibes. 

Miami has played out a similar story for the past three seasons under HC Mike McDaniel. His offense is innovative and bewildering when everything’s ticking, featuring a group of skill players with world-class speed. But like a high-performance sports car, the slightest misalignment can dramatically impact the performance of the unit, whether it’s injuries, cold weather or an unexpected defensive adjustment. The Dolphins have wilted down the stretch each of the past three years. 

Culture has been the buzz word this spring with how last year ended, with WR Tyreek Hill taking himself out of the game before requesting a trade and McDaniel calling out the whole team for a lack of accountability in his final presser. Yet there’s been little public accountability for Hill, who has not had an uneventful offseason off the field. There’s an argument to be made that the Dolphins should have tried to trade Hill, but he walked his trade request back and there’s been little appetite from Miami to shop him. 

Add to this some real roster holes in the secondary and offensive line, and this upcoming season has a house of cards feeling for the Dolphins. 

27 – Indianapolis Colts

2024 record: 8-9 

2025 betting line: 7.5

When a team has to issue a statement of support for a head coach and general manager like the Colts did at the end of last season for HC Shane Steichen and GM Chris Ballard, it’s not a promising indicator long-term. Steichen and Ballard are entering this upcoming season with a good amount of pressure and there are already ominous signs. The two signed former Giants QB Daniel Jones in free agency to compete with former first-round QB Anthony Richardson, a talented player who hasn’t been able to put it together on the field due to injuries and inaccuracy. Richardson is once again hurt, putting Jones in the lead to be the team’s starter. 

Perhaps Jones will become the latest castoff quarterback to resurrect his career, but his track record to this point is dubious. The Colts really needed Richardson to seize the job, and it’s not too late. Time is running out, though, quicker than you might think. New owners are always looking to put their stamp on the team with big changes, and while Colts owner Carlie Irsay-Gordon has been around the team a long time working for her father, the late Jim Irsay, she’ll be no different. 

28 – New York Jets

2024 record: 5-12 

2025 betting line: 5.5

Change always brings optimism at first, and the Jets are no stranger to that cycle with all the coaching and front office changes they’ve undergone the last decade-plus. New HC Aaron Glenn and GM Darren Mougey are blank slates to some point as first-timers in their roles, but already the Detroit influence from Glenn is apparent in how the Jets have been building the roster and conducting OTAs. This is going to be a team that wants to be physical and run the ball. 

They’ve got the quarterback to do that in Justin Fields, and the results of this season are largely going to come down to how well he maximizes the runway the Jets plan to give him as the starter. There’s a lot to like about Fields and his game, but so far his weaknesses have outweighed his strengths. 

There’s a lot of talent on the rest of the roster, but not as much perhaps as the past couple of years when the Jets thought they were a quarterback away from contending. Some rebuilding work is needed. This season will dictate how much. 

29 – Tennessee Titans

2024 record: 3-14 

2025 betting line: 5.5

The drumbeat of information on first-round QB Cam Ward has been nothing but positive since he was drafted No. 1 overall by the Titans. Ward is beating everyone to the facility in the morning, conducting position meetings with his fellow rookies before the coaches arrive, making highlight plays on the field and trash-talking star DT Jeffery Simmons. There have been mistakes and interceptions in practice, but Ward is checking the box for “it factor” with flying colors so far. 

The optimism for Ward is tempered by concerns about the state of the roster, especially on defense, and the qualifications of the coaching staff. The Titans earned the No. 1 pick last year, they didn’t luck into it or trade for it, and it was a group effort by the players and coaches. Some moves were made to improve, especially on the offensive line, but this is still a bottom-quartile roster in terms of talent. Coaches can improve but it’s still an open question about whether HC Brian Callahan and company have the goods to maximize Ward if it turns out he’s truly a baller. 

Planning For Manning?

Vying for the No. 1 pick

30 – New Orleans Saints

2024 record: 5-12 

2025 betting line: 5.5

The surprising retirement of veteran QB Derek Carr seems to have finally forced the Saints into a rebuild. Carr’s retirement will be good for the team in the long run and help them reset the books, but it could mean some short-term pain as second-round QB Tyler Shough competes with 2024 fifth-round QB Spencer Rattler to start. The Saints are breaking in new HC Kellen Moore and an overhauled offensive line, so some bumps are to be expected on offense. 

On defense, the team hired DC Brandon Staley who will be overseeing a major scheme shift compared to what New Orleans has been used to. That could hasten the departure for some veteran players as the Saints look to get younger on that side of the ball, but that’s going to be a process. I think the Saints could avoid slipping all the way to No. 1, but this is definitely a situation that has the potential to go really bad and spark even more wholesale changes. 

31 – Cleveland Browns

2024 record: 3-14 

2025 betting line: 5.5

The Browns aren’t going to be very good in 2025 and the team seems to understand that. They’ve operated with an eye on the future this offseason, including trading down from No. 2 overall, moving on from some veterans and taking cheap dart throws at quarterbacks. There’s too much pride and job security on the line for HC Kevin Stefanski and GM Andrew Berry to outright tank, but the roster is what it is. If they’re not going to be good, hopefully they can at least be fun with veteran QB Joe Flacco slinging it and a return to Stefanski’s roots as a play-caller. 

32 – New York Giants

2024 record: 3-14 

2025 betting line: 5.5

There is a faction that will talk up the Giants as a sneaky improved team for 2025, citing the talent on the defensive line after adding first-round OLB Abdul Carter to go with OLB Brian Burns, DT Dexter Lawrence and OLB Kayvon Thibodeaux plus some other moves made to improve. There’s also a new rookie quarterback in first-rounder Jaxson Dart, and that tends to inspire optimism. 

Yet the Giants are bringing back 91 percent of a roster that went 3-14 last year. The clear message is that former QB Daniel Jones was the primary reason for those struggles, and a new room with Dart and veterans Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston will be an antidote. I can’t buy that hypothesis. I have major concerns about the coaching staff on both sides of the ball, and there are still personnel issues at offensive line and cornerback that could weigh this season down. 

What I do agree with is that on paper, the Giants have a roster that should not be bad enough to earn the No. 1 pick. Injuries can change that, though, and the Giants do have a coaching staff that I think is vulnerable to the kind of snowball effect that produces awful seasons, the kind that end up netting the No. 1 pick.