Final predictions for key AFC tilt between Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers on Christmas Day in Week 17

In Week 17 of the 2024 NFL season, the Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) will travel to Pennsylvania to face the Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) in a key late-season AFC matchup.

The Chiefs, coming off a home win against the Houston Texans in Week 16, can clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference with a win in either of the next two weeks. The Steelers, coming off a divisional loss to the Baltimore Ravens, are tied for the division lead atop the AFC North. Pittsburgh currently holds the tiebreaker over the Ravens due to a better AFC conference record. That means they've got plenty to play for on Christmas Day in Week 17. 

Our A to Z Sports writing staff has submitted their predictions for this exciting, important, and festive AFC contest. Below, you can view those predictions.

Rob Gregson, Pittsburgh Steelers writer

Steelers 25, Chiefs 21

The Steelers and the Chiefs were aligned for three hours on Sunday when the Buffalo Bills nearly choked a game to the New England Patriots. That would have resulted in the one seed going to Kansas City, with little to play for against a Steelers team looking to win their division. 

Instead, this game means everything to both squads. The Chiefs are due for a loss, and this is the week they catch their second especially with George Pickens slowly ramping up and his availability looking more likey by the day. I think Pittsburgh wakes up for a home atmosphere on Christmas day, gets a few big plays from Pickens, and finds a way to force a turnover. It ends in a close battle where the Steelers stop their skid and take down the back-to-back champs. 

Charles Goldman, Kansas City Chiefs writer

Chiefs 27, Steelers 17

In Week 16, Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes gave an invigorating performance against the Houston Texans. He toughed out an ankle injury and sent a message to his entire team by doing so. Every facet of the game stepped up to help the team notch the home win.

I can't help but wonder just how amped up the team is going to be for this game against the Steelers in Pittsburgh. Last year, the Chiefs lost to the Las Vegas Raiders at home on Christmas. I have a feeling that Kansas City is going to be extra motivated to ensure a victory being that they can put that loss behind them and wrap up the No. 1 seed in the AFC conference with a week to spare. 

Nick Roesch, A to Z Sports Betting

Chiefs 24, Steelers 20

Being the road team on a short week this late in the season is a monumental challenge, but the Chiefs have a lot at stake in this game. With a win, they clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC, and most of their starters get the next 2.5 weeks off to rest until the divisional round of the playoffs. I would imagine that is highly motivating for a team that had an early bye week and a brutal December schedule.

Matchup-wise, these two teams are heading in different directions as the Steelers have lost two games in a row and the Chiefs have won their last five. Kansas City's offense is coming off it's best performance of the season, and quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the best set of skill position players that he's had since early in his career. This game will be tight because Pittsburgh doesn't have enough offense to blowout a defense the caliber of Kansas City's, and I'm picking the Chiefs in a close game every time.

Justin Churchill, AFC West writer

Chiefs 24, Steelers 17

The Kansas City Chiefs have done nothing but found ways to win. And, if that means they are the worst 14-1 team of all time, then so be it, but they don't care about things like that. And, they don't care how they win, whether it be lucky, some help from the refs, as fans say, or any other way. They just want to win Super Bowls, and they know how to do that.

Nothing will change for this game, one that we have seen has no real history when it comes to Patrick Mahomes and the Steelers. All of the times they have faced one another, including the postseason, it feels like the Chiefs have pretty much beaten up on the Steelers. I don't see that changing, and I see these two having a slug fest. With the Chiefs issues on offense, they will walk out 15-1.