Former agent predicts contract Giants' Saquon Barkley could receive before deadline

There's a new prediction for how the New York Giants and star running back Saquon Barkley could come to terms on a deal before the July 17 deadline for teams to sign franchise-tagged players. 

For a piece published Thursday, former agent and current CBS Sports NFL contracts and salary cap expert Joel Corry compared Barkley's situation to when the Tennessee Titans placed the franchise tag on Derrick Henry back in 2020. According to Turron Davenport of ESPN, Henry ultimately signed a four-year, $50M contract that included $25.5M fully guaranteed before that year's deadline for franchise players.

Henry was a two-time rushing champion when he later received a raise ahead of the 2022 season. Barkley, of course, has never led the league in rushing yards but recorded a career-best 1,312 yards on the ground last season. 

"Based on Henry's contract, Barkley could reasonably expect around $27M to be fully guaranteed in a four-year deal despite the depressed state of the running back market," Corry explained. 

Corry added that negotiations between the Giants and Barkley recently took "a turn for the better," as it was reported ahead of the July 4 holiday that there was, at the time, "some level of optimism" the sides will come to an agreement before July 17. If they don't, Barkley will have to accept playing on the $10.091M franchise tender for 2023. 

Similar to others, Corry noted that Barkley's threat about possibly sitting regular-season games out without a contract is "likely just posturing." With that said, it's unclear if Giants general manager Joe Schoen is willing to give Barkley over $25M in guaranteed cash when the 26-year-old is on track to earn roughly $22.22M in guaranteed money via the prices of the franchise tags for the next two campaigns. 

Assuming Schoen plays hardball through July 17, Barkley may have to decide how much in future earnings he's willing to risk by essentially entering this season on a one-year contract.